Stock Market Update

The bull case is as follows: Top line business sales growth momentum may slow some this year,
but the outlook for earnings continues excellent reflecting large corporate tax cuts now on the
book. Interest rates may rise further, but since inflation pressure remains quiescent, the Fed will
remain on a gradual course of tightening monetary policy. There is no excess liquidity in the US
system, but there may be some further rotation out of a weaker bond market into stocks. Moreover,
share buybacks could surge over the next fifteen months as companies tap larger cash flows. And,
there may be additional foreign interest in US stocks. There are exogenous factors to keep a close
eye upon, including a possible heavy duty bi-lateral trade war with China, fallout if the talks with
North Korea fail, a Syrian conflict that could go beyond its borders and a crisis if Trump blows
up the DOJ and the Mueller inquiry.These clouds could clear up rather quickly, giving investors
a clean shot at the prior top over 2800 SPX, or they could linger and force market players to make
further adjustments.

The SPX chart reflects a cloudy crystal ball. There is a bearish falling wedge pattern forming, and
the SPX is struggling to hold the uptrend in place since early 2016. But the market is holding
above its 200 day m/a and a 2600 support level.  SPX Daily

SPX -- Monthly

The bull market continues, but with a tough first quarter of 2018, the market is barely holding its
uptrend. Moreover, for the first time since late 2014, the longer term momentum indicator (MACD)
has turned down. This indicator can whipsaw in the months ahead, but the downturn is bearish
for now. Note as well that there has been no negative cross in the MACD yet, so that there is no
confirmation of a downtrend ahead.  SPX Monthly

My weekly cyclical fundamental indicator has been in an uptrend since early 2016. It has turned
sloppy during Q1, but is not headed down fast enough to cause much concern. The US economy
may be peaking in terms of growth momentum and this suggests we may see some slowing of
top line sales growth ahead as well as some pressure on pretax profit margins. On the plus
side, the business sector will benefit from a lower tax rate and earnings should continue growing.
The Fed has turned more restrictive in policy. It is shrinking its balance sheet and the monetary
base has flattened out as well. Bank asset growth is modest relative to economic momentum so
that, in all, there is insufficient liquidity growth in the system to support rising stock prices. This
leaves the market dependent on share buybacks by companies and foreign inflows from offshore
investors. With short rates rising, there is a challenge ahead for the SPX p/e multiple. On the
plus side a cyclical advance underway in  inflation has been strikingly humble. You can also
watch to see if equities might benefit from rotation out of bonds if inflation perks up a little more.
In all, thin porridge for the bulls.

SPX -- Quickie

News that the US and China were exploring a trade agreement behind the scene triggered off a
relief rally today, with the SPX rallying off the 200 day m/a trend support. Traders also liked the
double bottom on closing lows.   SPX Daily

We will just have to see whether the two parties can up with a suitable compromise. In the mean-
time you can watch to see if the SPX can rally enough to reverse downtrends in the 25 day ma, and
the RSI, MACD and trend indicators. You need to take care here because the first attempt to 'buy
the dip' in early Feb. did not work, with this indicating a loss of the level of high confidence we
saw throughout last year and into Jan. of '18.

SPX -- Weekly

Back in late Jan. '18, I argued that the SPX had carried up to such a large premium to its 40 wk. m/a
that history showed there was but in a 1 in 4 chance it would trend significantly higher over the
next six odd months or so. Since then, it has gone into corrective mode and, based on the RSI and
stochastic measures, it has fallen from heavy overbought down to neutral. The market is again
testing its 40 wk. m/a, and all of the premium has gone out of it. Momentum, based on the MACD
reading, is still elevated but is now negative as it trends down. The SPX is now sitting right at
longer term trend support and a further sharp downward break would signal a termination of the
advance at least until a new base at lower levels could be established.  SPX Weekly

That the market did not break down last week but exited as a cliffhanger instead suggests the bulls
are trying to buy time to see if investors now think rising short rates and a protectionist trade action
between the major economic powers -- the US and China -- cloud the outlook sufficiently to
warrant further price erosion. Restrictive trade action so far is mild enough that the market should
not worry, but we do not know if further actions could come along to create more substantial and
palpable risk. I know what should happen between the US and China on this subject, but what is
likely to happen is the obvious critical thing. It will be very interesting to see if traders are
confident next week to rally the market based on the current prospect of only modest economic
damage.

 

March Overview

The best guess here is that the US economy is experiencing an interim momentum peak with a
mild and short lived slowdown to follow. This peaking process will be the third one since the
economy began to recover from its deeply recessed base back in 2009. My indicators and
observations of inventory levels now suggest the slowdown will not be as long or as steep as they
were following interim peaks in 2011 and 2014. Business profits and real disposable incomes are
benefiting from the large tax cuts recently enacted and slowdowns here will likely be far less
pronounced. With the quantitative tightening of monetary liquidity (QT) having displaced QE,
the stock market will likely remain focused on economic momentum going forward so any
negative reaction in the stock market to a slowdown should be mild.

Trump's first round of protectionism  -- duties on imported steel and aluminum -- looks like it
may resolve into an old fashioned extortion program. the second wave may target China's large
export balance in the US and could be tougher and involve some nasty blow back from China.
This potential trade spat could shake stock market confidence more significantly.

The indicators still show no very substantial inflation potential ahead for the US. My longer
range indicators suggest a much stronger ramp up of inflation pressure, but this is yet to show
up.

I am expecting the Fed to continue to raise short rates in a temperate manner, but I think the
Fed could turn more aggressive later in the year if economic growth picks up again as I expect.

It will be instructive to see if the economic slowdown out ahead in the short run triggers a further
downswing in longer term Treasury yields.

As of now there seems to be little potential for the development of the kind of cyclical credit
squeeze  that normally pre-dates a recession. Liquidity growth is slowing, but short term credit
demand remains exceedingly mild still with worthy borrowers preferring the long end of the
market.

Bobby Three Sticks (Robert Mueller 111) continues to close in on Trump and as he does, there
may be further push back from The Donald. This could prove disconcerting to the markets if
some sort of judicial crisis emerges.

SPX -- Update

The up leg underway since early 2016 remains intact and provides trend support around 2600. The
upward acceleration in the SPX since the 2016 election has not broken in any decisive way, leaving
the SPX with a shot at regaining the highs set in Jan. The market is not at all stable, and if it is to
move higher, it needs to come up through the 25 day m/a with an up turn in the "25" to follow.
 SPX Daily

So far, the SPX is up around 1.7% on the year. It seems as if we have had year's worth of action
all rolled into a little more than two months' time. Most market strategists, although bullish on
the outlook for this year, also foresaw increased volatility as market players contend with the
expected combination of rising interest rates and profits coming along together. For most folks,
that scenario has not changed, nor has the consideration of an acceleration of inflation as the
economic expansion matures. In short, the thinking out there remains that events could lead to
occasional wobbles of the SPX p/e ratio. My fair value model suggests a single figure of SPX
2720 through mid-2019, which is where the market stands now.

There is concern that should Trump apply tariffs to both aluminum and steel imports, a larger
trade war could ensue. However, lets see if he is running a bluff first.

The lack of stability in the market at present calls for you to double check your convictions.

Big Trouble In Big China?

China plans to amend its constitution to  eliminate term limits for the president.  If so, maybe
Mr. Xi can serve more than two consecutive terms. Given China's imperial legacy and the long
run for Mao and Chou, the knee jerk response from outsiders is that Mr. Xi wants those
imperial trappings and may signal a new cult. Could be. And, since this is a bull market, look
for China apologists to put a positive spin on this transition if that is all it is.

To be a contrarian, I offer a different and more dangerous assessment. Suppose the younger Party
climbers and technocrats have indicated to Xi that his generation has created an obvious financial
mess in China and that it is Xi's job to clean it up. There is no new "Great Leap Forward" for
China unless The Party straightens out the country's finances first. A genuine reform transition
would involve efforts to gain control over China's finances, specifically debt creation.
That cannot be done without creating pain and economic and financial fallout that will extend
beyond China's borders. It cannot be accomplished without a president that is in a very strong
position and who can command the Party rank and file to do the bidding necessary to turn
this enormous debt laden boat around. Mr. Xi already tried and failed to generate a super bull
market in equities to balance the debt. Recall that China had to make open market purchases to
keep its equity market afloat. And, if China continues to leverage up and create new entities to
take on its bad debt, the result will be accelerated capital flight, the destruction of its currency
and bitter recrimination from the international markets.

Now, if all Xi wants to do is to become the imperial Xi, that could have dangerous unintended
consequences as well, including an eventual and destabilizing mutiny.

Do not ignore this decision. Comments are invited and welcome.

Commodity Price Index

The last bull market in commodities ran from the end of 2001 through early 2008. Paced by very
rapid production growth in China, inventory hoarding and intense financial speculation, the CRB
rose from a low of 170 to the 470 level before collapsing over the balance of 2008. The market
staged a strong partial recovery over the 2009 - 11 period, reflecting a global economic advance
from deep recession, a massive fiscal stimulus program by China, and speculative inventory
pipeline rebuilding and the return of intense financial speculation. But, the bear market endured
until early 2016. Over 2011 - 2016, global economic growth was modest, inventories were
slowly unwound, and speculators turned strongly to financial assets.

Materials production capacity expanded rapidly over the decade through 2010, and more recent demand has not been strong enough to take up the slack. Commodities pricing has also been adversely affected by the growth of synthetics, recyclables and new production and and
consumption technologies.

For many years, there was price support for the CRB around the 170 -200 area, but a reading of
200 on the index has now become resistance!  Weekly CRB

As seen, the market has been recovering from its multi-year low of around 160 set in early 2016.
Faster global economic growth over the past couple years has not been sufficient to set off a strong
sustainable rally in the CRB. From a longer term perspective, the CRB is still in a bear market.
The current extended base looks promising, but the index has not strengthened sufficiently to
challenge longer run trend resistance. To attract stronger trader and investor interest, the CRB
needs to break above the 200 level and challenge that first significant hurdle at 230. The CRB
is at huge discounts to the stock and bond market price indices and would attract strong interest
if there is finally a stronger positive response to a swifter global economy.

Gold Price

My long term view on the gold price remains that gold will  primarily stay a range bound
trading vehicle until investors become more confident that the global economy is transitioning
from a deflation prone period into an inflationary era when global plant and service operating
rates are more easily challenged by rising world economic demand. A tighter operating
environment tends to foster stronger wage growth and stronger competition for materials and
commercial resources. The very deep global recession and modest economic recovery that
has come along in its wake has left a legacy of excess production capacity and a trend of volatile
but decelerating inflation.

Although the cyclical fundamentals for the gold price have been positive since early 2016, and
there has been a rather mild cyclical acceleration of inflation pressure, it has not apparently
been strong enough to support a sustained rise in the price of gold. Since gold began to recover
in early 2016, the interim price lows have trended higher, but clear longer term price resistance
has formed in the 1375 - 1400 area.  Weekly Gold Price

The gold price is inherently volatile and price action can far outstrip a fundamental approach
to trying to determine a reasonable price for the metal. In recent years speculative surges have
been contained even though gold has fared decently off its 2016 low. The bottom panel of the
chart shows that gold's price has been deteriorating relative to the stock market for a quite a
while. That could change if further economic growth brings increased inflation pressure going
forward.

Stock Market -- This Is A Little Odd

While folks debate the near term future of the market, I content myself with an oddity in the
market internals. The TRIN measures the amount of selling pressure in the market. A high TRIN
signals heavy selling pressure and a low TRIN signals light selling pressure (low volume per issue
sold). During the extended period of market weakness over the latter part of 2015, the 13 week
TRIN reached a high of 1.6, indicating the accumulation of heavy selling pressure.  Weekly TRIN

Notice that despite the dramatic sell-off over the earlier part of February, the 13 week TRIN has
continued to trend down to low levels, and since it's now below 1.00, suggests the continuation of
accumulated net buying pressure through 2018.

SPX -- Update

According to my cyclical valuation work, I have the SPX as fairly valued at 2610 for 2018 at 2720
through mid-2019. The modest increase in valuation product into next year reflects another year
of positive earnings direction offset by a reduction in the market's p/e ratio to reflect a higher
inflation rate of 3% by mid-2019. Although the inflation pressure gauges currently remain in
rather humble uptrends, that should change as the large fiscal stimulus programs kick in to boost
an already maturing economic expansion. there could very well be an interim period starting in
a month or two when the economy temporarily slows, and market players  run-up stock prices in
the erroneous assumption that "Goldilocks" has returned to preside over a period of more modest
growth and continuing low inflation. If such a strong rally occurs, there might be a classic
"get out " rally to reduce equity exposure.

Despite the current correction, the stock market remains strongly overbought on a long term
basis and mildly overdone in the intermediate term. The main trend of the market remains in
bullish mode with intermediate trend supports around 2600 on the SPX. Longer term trend
support stand around 2500.  SPX Weekly

Do not ask me where the market is going over the couple of weeks. However, by my conservative
trading discipline, I would give the market a hard look for a long side fling if the stochastic
measure (bottom panel of the chart) drops inside the 20 level.

Stock Market -- Historic Overbought Deflates

Yeah, well it was a market that became one of the most overbought in history. The best the bulls
could do was express some edginess the weekend before Groundhog Day (Feb.2). Little did folks
know that Punxatawny Phil  down in Pa. was not only forecasting six more weeks of winter, but
an Eagles win in the super bowl as well as a blowout of the parabolic move in the SPX that we
all witnessed in. Jan.'18. Easy come, easy go.

Now the market is assuredly on the oversold side and we'll just have to see whether the boyz can
rally around the fact that the SPX closed well off its low today or whether exhaustion has not fully
set in and there is more to go on the downside in the days ahead.

Several weeks back, I opined that if I stretched it, there was a case for the SPX to trade around
the 2610 level in 2018. That speculation immediately looked foolish as the market rocketed
above 2870 by the end of Jan. The rapid decline in the SPX to just below 2650 makes the 2610
estimate of fair value look less foolish.  SPX Daily

Market players are going to have to decide whether the prospect of higher business profits this
year will also include faster inflation and higher interest rates and what consideration of the
latter factors might do to their expectation for the SPX p/e ratio. I think it is fair to say that
most investors did not envisage crossing the p/e challenge bridge until well later in the year.
These issues may fully occupy investors if they keep their blinders on.

I happen to be entertaining a darker vision for the near term future. Not only is the US Gov't.
barely functioning, but I suspect Trump may consider some politically dangerous maneuvers
if the Mueller investigation closes in on him and his family especially. I have some fears here
involving challenges to our constitution in this era of sharp political division and given how
I view The Donald's history, I do not regard them as baseless. I also do not know whether
the serious misbehavior we see underway in Washington is bothering the market already and,
I do not know if the market will grow more troubled as matters get more heated as the Mueller
investigation proceeds. Let each of you decide how much we should pay attention to this
sad spectacle of America in worsening political conflict.
_____________________________________________________________________________

Stock Market -- More Amber Lights

As the SPX continues to surpass generational overbought records, I have a couple of more
signals to keep in mind. The SPX is now trading at a 13.4% premium to its 40 wk. moving
average. This is not a record, but history shows that when the market exceeds its 40 wk. m/a
by more than 10%, the odds are only about 1in 4 that the market will make good further progress
over the next six months or so. This signal does not imply a bear market will be coming along,
but a correction of substance is certainly not out of the question. Also, with a powerful run-up
in place, the intermediate and longer term price momentum indicators (ROC% below) are
getting extended. They also portend but do not fore-ordain a discontinuation of momentum
uptrends ahead.  SPX Weekly

The SPX has also turned parabolic in this powerful rally. It has not and need not complete
its move, but for a long term veteran of the markets, such levitation is absolutely fascinating.
I have done markets bubble measurement over the years, and it is very hard to spot one in the
early stages. The trajectory up for the SPX is a bubble trajectory, but the SPX would have to
reach 3300 this year and, perhaps, 4100 in 2019 to qualify as a fully blown market bubble.
Bubble talk does not scare many players anymore because of the idea of how much money can
be made during the flight higher. Moreover, money managers can lose accounts quickly if
they do not play the bubble. That's called career risk, and it surfaced broadly in 2000. It would
be odd indeed to have a market bubble so soon after the 1996 - 2000 event, but these are
loopy times for the US.

If the market takes a holiday for a couple of weeks just ahead, but then resumes a its strong
trend higher, central bankers should start to feel the heat to tamp down the advance. Greenspan
warned about the last bubble in late 1996, then quieted down and wound up as a drum major
leading it higher.

Finally, do not forget The Donald. He has fucked up more than party with his peculiar
obsessions.

_____________________________________________________________________________

US Dollar

I have been bullish on the dollar since the end of the deep recession of 2008-9. The long term view
was that the dollar could rise from the deeply depressed low 70s level back then to the 100 level
by 2020. I did not posit faster economic growth than the world could muster, but that the US
balance of trade would gradually improve reflecting increasing fuel efficiency, rising domestic
hydrocarbon production and a continued slowing of real consumer spending growth on the basis
of less favorable demographics. The rise in the dollar up to the 105 level by the end of 2016
represented a considerable overshoot of my projection. $USD Daily

Slow global economic growth in the intervening years led to a contraction of global trade and
favored the dollar by too large a margin. The sharp decline in the value of the dollar since the end
of 2016 reflects stronger global economic performance, stronger trade, and some deterioration of
the US trade balance. In addition, the dollar was heavily overbought by the end of 2016.

The chart reveals that the dollar sits well above longer term technical support, and it is tempting
to extend the dollar's downtrend line significantly further in the months ahead. Since the end of
fixed exchange rates way back when in the 1970s, I have often been been surprised by the strong
volatility of the dollar and the other major currencies, so far be it from me to argue that the
dollar is about to bottom out.

In my view, the dollar has dropped into a  reasonable area just below the 90 level, and with export
sales rising at a reasonable rate, I am reluctant to become too bearish now.

______________________________________________________________________________



 

Stock Market -- First Greater Fools Arrive

The bull party has become a little more crowded with the arrival of the first greater fools. Among
the pundits in this crowd are those who proclaim that there is large sideline money that has yet
to jump in but is now doing so. The story goes that even after eight years of a rising market there is
a big crowd who are suddenly afraid they going to miss a huge run-up. When this kind of thinking
becomes mainstream as it last did over 1997 - 2000, you might as well put the fundamentals down
into your desk drawer. In fairness though, the market is hardly beyond rational argument yet, and
the recent trajectory of the SPX is still too mild to suggest a genuine bubble may be forming. It is
still just a burst of enthusiasm that has brought the market to an overbought that has not been seen
in over a generation. But, with money starting to flow into weaker, less experienced hands, volatility
could start to increase.

SPX Weekly

Stock Market

As we wheel into the new year, we start off with a fabulously overbought market and one which
is also mildly overextended on a very long term basis. My most liberal valuation measure has fair
value for 2018 at SPX 2610 based on a p/e ratio of 18x and eps of $145. On this measure, the
SPX is already discounting an extension of the rising earnings trend well into 2019. I fully expect
a nasty and deep correction at some point over the next two years, although I cannot make a
credible case for such as of now, as I have many more questions about the environment ahead than
answers.

My weekly cyclical fundamental market indicator is partly forward looking and partly coincident.
It rose very sharply over most of 2016 but advanced only mildly last year. I watch it in conjunction
with the PMI diffusion index for manufacturing. The PMI rose sharply from the 50 level in mid-
2016 to the very strong 60 area by late last year. I would point out that a 60 mfg. reading has only
been reached eight times since 1985 and rarely stays there for long. So there could be a loss of
economic growth momentum over the first half of 2018. If so, it could have a negative impact
on stock market momentum. On the positive side, my inflation thrust measures have turned higher,
but are up only rather modestly. Thus, the 18x p/e is not immediately imperiled on the inflation
front.

Faster economic growth last year has reduced excess monetary liquidity in the system down to
zero. Normally, that is a warning sign, but so far, foreign inflows to US stocks have been a nicely
positive offset (It should be noted that US market cyclical tops often coincide with surges of
stock buying from abroad).

Short term interest rates are widely expected to increase by 100 basis points over the next 12 - 15
months, but that need not be a problem unless the Fed signals an extended continuation of
monetary tightening.

Interestingly, the Fed has been dragging its feet on the much heralded quantitative tightening
program and this has helped both stocks and bonds. We await whether They will turn more
aggressive this year and how the markets will react. Ms. Yellen is leaving the heavy lifting
to the new guy.

Finally, we have The Donald himself. He could behave very badly if special counsel Mueller
closes in on him of if the stock market and the economy do not treat him well.

Have a good new year and Godspeed.

SPX Weekly

Stock Market Sentiment -- Quickie

When the equities only put / call ratio reaches a low level, it reveals strong bullish sentiment among
traders, and, as such may serve as a contrarian warning. The chart link below shows how the shorter
term p / c ratio since early 2016 has been in a persistent downtrend as the market has trended
sharply higher. Traders were way too bearish late in 2015 and early in 2016, and now have become
very nearly too bullish. This, as traders have positioned for a hoped for year end 'Santa' rally.

$CPCE Weekly

Long Treasury Bond

The long T-bond will be very interesting to watch as 2018 unfolds. With inflation running down
around 2%, the bond has given up almost all of its long run 300 basis point premium to average
of the inflation rate. Bond investors have also remained skeptical that US real economic growth
will accelerate markedly enough to create sufficient pressure on extant economic slack to push
the inflation rate above the 2% average for any appreciable period of time.

The long guy has moved up from its all time low yield of 2.1% to as high as 3.2% since 2016,
before settling down to the 2.8+% level recently. Doubtless, rising short rates over the past 12-15
months have exerted upward pressure on yields, but the rise in the long bond yield % has been
very stubborn. My bond yield directional indicator has pointed to higher yield levels but it too
has cooled off recently as US production growth has remained modest and sensitive materials
prices have flattened out after rising appreciably from early 2016 through early 2017.

So far, the bond players have not grown apprehensive that the Trump / GOP tax cut plan is going
to do much to push up either growth or inflation. Moreover, there is as yet little worry that the
combination of Fed quantitative tightening (selling Treasuries and agencies) and a larger budget
deficit resulting from the tax cut plan will create sufficient supply to put extra premium in the
bond yield. Plainly the bond market is playing like they are from Missouri: Show Us!

Long Treasury Yield %

Short Term Interest Rates

Well, I have dusted off the short rates file now that the Fed has started moving off the ZIRP
policy. Since the economic recovery began in 2009, the inflation rate has averaged about 2%
per year. My super long term short rate model suggests that the 91day T-bill should have
averaged about 2 - 2.5% over this interval. Obviously the Fed, deeply concerned about nursing
the Us economy back to life and on to a more stable footing, allowed the 'Bill' yield, or risk-
free rate, to hover near zero over most of this period. The T-bill has risen up to around 1.3%
recently, so we remain in an easy money mode when compared to inflation. You can see the
same thing by comparing the low bill yield to total business sales of around 6% measured y/y.
It is interesting to note that my cyclical rate direction model only signaled that short rates should
be rising only twice over the entire 2009 - 17 period. the first time was as 2014 progressed and second time was as 2017 unfolded. It has even been a stretch this year as business shorter term
credit demand has been increasing only modestly. The long term approaches I use show that
the Fed has indeed been very easy with money but not recklessly so.

Investor expectations for the direction of short rates next year and in 2019 reveal modest projections
of higher short rates and are based on the assumption the Fed will continue to move to restore
normality to the interest rate structure on a gradual basis. It is wise to expect short rates to keep
on an upward track through 2019 provided the economy continues to expand and the inflation rates
strengthens further .

Since there is light pressure when one compares short term credit demand against the supply of
loanable funds, economic momentum and the inflation trend will be the key fundamentals going
forward. Naturally, as Mr. Powell eases into his role as the new Fed chair, markets players will
take careful note of whether changes in the Fed's approach evolve.

3M T-bill Yield

Bitcoin Goes Parabolic

Bitcoin is the most prominent of the growing list of crypto-currencies. When I first encountered
it in 2008, its foundations were shrouded in mystery, but I think it was intended as an alternative
to fiat currency which had features that suggested that, unlike fiat currency, it was designed as
an inflation hedge which could maintain its value. As such, it should hold its value over
time when adjusted for the inflation rate. With inflation low and relatively stable in recent years,
the original concept suggested that Bitcoin's price should appreciate rather modestly. However,
it has become a plaything for wealthy individual traders and investors. Now that it has become
a high flyer, Wall Street has taken an interest and and a futures market is about to be rolled out.

It may well be, that over the long term, crypto-currency may occupy a spot along with PMs
such as gold in the inflation hedge play category. At the moment, however, it is in a parabolic
price formation and that kind of price curve rarely works out for those who come in long as
the move completes. It is tough to measure parabolic price action with accuracy, but the
Bitcoin curve looks like it may be in a terminal phase, at least for the short run.  CBTC Weekly

SPX In Longer Term Perspective

Looking back nearly 25 years, it has been an impressive period for the SPX. Net per share has
compounded at 6.6% annually which is a bit above the very long term average. However, the
SPX itself has grown at 7.8% as the p/e ratio has tilted higher in recent years, reflecting not
only low interest rates and inflation, but high confidence the longer run future will bring more
attractive performance.

The market is trading above the upper band of longer term ranges starting in the early 1930s,
again reflecting rising earnings and elevated p/e ratios. Noteworthy also is that earnings are
not yet enough extended to signify a top in cyclical economic performance.

The accompanying SPX chart makes clear the dramatic recent power of the market. SPX Monthly
Measures of longer term price momentum are running as strong as they have in over a quarter of
a century and the near term reveals no indications of decay as of yet.

When the market topped the previous historic highs during 2013, it signaled the onset of a new
bull market and not just a quantum cyclical bounce off the 2009 cyclical low. However, from
a practical technical point of view, the evidence would suggest the SPX should not do much
better than at present in the near term without some degree of negative price adjustment. The
'now' should be interesting because the boyz are hoping for a nice Santa Claus rally to wrap up
the year.                                                                                                                                                                     

Continuing Bet Against Inflation

My longer term inflation pressure gauge strongly suggests some acceleration of inflation
pressure over 2018 - 19. However, the shorter term inflation pressure measure, although
hitting a low this year, has advanced only meekly despite a nearly global advance in economic
momentum. The broad CRB commodities index is up but slightly over levels seen in mid-2016.
Even the industrial commodities composites have leveled off after advancing earlier this year.
I think it is true that despite faster economic growth, there is still significant excess plant capacity
in the world, but there are a couple of other factors worth remembering. One major one has been
the very substantial over-investment in inventories in evidence for at least the past five years. I
believe excess stocks are being worked off and that as near term supply comes into better
balance with demand, commodity prices should rise a bit faster. The other big change we have
seen since the early part of this new century has been the 'financialization' of materials markets
through rapid growth of futures trading and the development of products that both traders and
investors can access without having to deal with the actual physical volumes themselves.After
the major global economic downturn of 2007- 09, materials markets have have lost favor to
the financials reflecting the continuing imbalance between materials supply / demand.

However as the slack comes out of the materials markets and inventory overhangs are cleared,
there may well be a shift in trader preferences from financials back toward materials, one which
could be much stronger than the actual improvement of materials demand vs. supply.

With prospects for faster inflation still rather humble short term, the financial markets still
hold sway. Consider the exceptional tightening of the yield curve: 30y Treas% - 2y%

The Stock Market -- Long Term

I am projecting the SPX to reach the 3550 level by 2025. This projection is for doggy growth of
about 4.2% per annum and includes a substantial price retreat and subsequent recovery around
2019 - 2020. What's worse is that I have ginned up the SPX ' earnings growth rate slightly to
account for faster foreign sales and profits growth and also for improved inventory management
by US companies.Despite the availability of highly sophisticated supply management  tools, the management of inventories by business has been too speculative over the last seven odd years.
I am also looking for modest appreciation of business pricing power as the world slowly works
off still sizable production capacity. The growth of monetary liquidity will continue to taper
down as central banks work to regain reasonable balance between the still excessive supply  of
liquidity and genuine economic demand. This will mean somewhat higher interest rates over the long run and considerably more market volatility as the days of spoon feeding the global economy with
dollops of liquidity wane. In sum, I envision a more subdued continuation of the bull market but
one with an expanded 'normal' price range.

If I was a younger guy with a couple of extra bucks, I would be looking at investment in reasonably
valued smaller capitalization companies in both the US and foreign markets. I would only trade
the US market overall after periods of substantial price weakness and, most of all, I would be
looking to invest money privately here at home.

The following chart shows the current very elevated SPX with a horizontal line at 2200 which
is the level that would provide closer to a 10% annual total return out to the projected level of
3550 in 2025. SPX Weekly

Longer Term -- Monetary Policy

It is gospel among central bankers that provision of excessive money growth over time will
eventually lead to price inflation which will tend to accelerate to levels that are unacceptable to
the execution of sound monetary policy. The period of major quantitative easing of policy in the
wake of the Great Depression and lasting until the end of WW2 swelled the monetary base hugely
and was never corrected. There were a number of factors that contributed the dramatic inflation
of the 1968 - 82 period and it can be argued that the swelling of the monetary base in years prior
probably contributed to it. Looking out longer term, today's central bankers are concerned that the
major QE programs of recent years, if not corrected in some form could provide the raw material
for a new round of major inflation at some point down the road. The thinking here is that even if
there is no immediate risk, inflation could well up again even if it is ten years out or longer.

The mammoth excess reserves that now  sit in the world's major banking systems are of major
long term concern to the central banks. Programs to reduce the size of central bank balance sheets
directly or hold them in check by paying competitive interest rates on these reserves are two
methods under review. Suffice it to say that plans can be expected to be developed which will
provide far less proportionate liquidity than investors and traders have become accustomed to
over most of the last decade. Since such tightening of policies have not been tried before on a
major scale, there are elements of sizable risk that may only become apparent as these programs
unfold.

The Fed currently plans to experiment with reducing the size of its balance sheet in the months
ahead in combination with a program of continuing to gradually increase the level of short term
interest rates as the cycle of the economic expansion cycle plays out.

With the economic depression of 2008, the world entered a pro-deflationary environment because
the preceding global economic expansion and the initial bounce of economies after the 2008-2009
downturn resulted in the development of large excess global productive capacity. The issue
of low operating rates is next on this exploration of the long term.

The Long Term -- Overview

This post begins a series of notes on the long term outlook for the capital markets and the
economy. It is based on a half century of analytic work, hopefully informed conjecture, and
of course, sprinkles of pure imagination.

I think that by 2025 - 2027, the stock market and the global economy will fall into serious
trouble. I foresee a credit crunch that bring the stock market and an overheated economy into
steep downturns. I am looking toward China to have large scale economic and financial blow-
outs that take the US and the rest of the world down with it. I also am projecting an end to a
longer term bull market in US stocks to come to a an end which will see highs that are not
surpassed for a good several years. As well I am, projecting the broad financial environment
to become increasingly volatile by 2020 if not a little sooner.

This view presumes that inflationary pressures will gradually increase going forward and bring
about a long, long overdue capital expansion cycle which will add to the world's production
capacity and thus set off central bank tightening of the credit reins.

Through this all, my deepest concern would be for China where the odds favor up and coming
technocrats who will decide to bring President Xi's expanding political power and reach to an
end. This is projected to be an introspective and deeply unsettling period.

Although I do foresee the US bull market in stocks coming to an end until 2025, I suspect an
overvalued market to have a serious decline over 2019 - 2020 as the economy shifts away from
nominal inflation and super low interest rates up toward more "normal" levels.
______________________________________________________________________________
Note On The Near Term
The SPX is getting a touch pricey...Note as well that the intermediate term stochastic (bottom
panel) rarely goes through a calendar year without heading down toward the 20 level.
SPX Weekly

Broad Stock Market (Value Line Arithmetic)

Cyclical Bull market continues and rose to new high this week.

Spurs for new up leg since early 2016: Potential for faster economic growth as major business
inventory cycle unwound....Increase in business pricing power and higher profit margin...Promise
of large tax cut program encompassing both individuals and business via Trump...Continuation
of very low and negative short term interest rates.

Looking Ahead
Momentum of real economic growth is at or near peak with slower growth ahead...Pricing power
has been disappointing this year but may improve slightly....Tax cut program could boost corporate
profits by an extra 10% over 2018 / 2019....Passing of tax cut program in full hardly assured....Fed
plans another hike to short rates and to begin shrinking excess liquidity....Private sector funding of
economy is now merely adequate with no excess of liquidity in evidence.

Valuation shows a fully valued market with little scope to tolerate an unexpected surge of inflation
pressure or more sustained rise of short term interest rates.

Fundamental conclusion : bull market with moderate return / high risk profile because of
developing tightening of liquidity.

VLE Weekly Chart

Chart shows overbought market for intermediate term...Bottom panel shows that mid and smaller
cap. stocks are starting to outperform on expectation  that tax cut program will pass muster.

Trump Plan To Loot The Treasury

The Donald's tax cut plan offers a bonanza in cash for the wealthy and for business. And the
Congress has put itself up for sale as well. Ostensibly, to help defray the costs of the large tax
breaks ahead, tax loopholes will have to be closed. The lobbyists will be there with campaign
cash, sports tickets, girls and even job offers for the future with the private sector. As of this
moment, all the deficit hawks around when Obama was president appear to be on holiday.
There will be many debates and fights over these issues. All of them will be stale. After all,
the issue  of laissez-faire vs. the welfare state has been around for nearly 150 years here in the
US. There brawls will be especially nasty if the Ryan wing of the House starts talking up
entitlement spending cuts to help contain the budget deficit.

When it comes to the markets, there will be extra spin and bullshit thrown in with the strategy
pieces yet to come on stocks, bonds and gold. I leave it all to the rest my brethren to regale
you with their stories. 

Stock Market

I have followed the stock market since the late 1960s. I have always been a monetary liquidity guy
who like to buy when the Fed fosters a tail wind for the economy and the stock market through
providing liquidity to the system and reducing interest rates.

Finding market low points when the Fed has your back with 'easy money' has been a top priority
for me because these periods are always low risk / high return intervals. I have always been much
less concerned with trying to call market tops when the Fed has turned restrictive and liquidity
is being squeezed because I usually opt to scale back positions as the head winds intensify.

The Fed is embarking on a historic mission now. It plans not only to raise interest rates gradually,
but to shrink its balance sheet and excess reserves in the banking system. The bulls will argue
monetary policy is still accomodative, but as time rolls along, the Fed will continue to reduce
its balance sheet substantially, and the head winds will only intensify.

I am content with SPX 2500, and at the tender age of 78, I am not well motivated to do the
careful and intense research to figure out when the market will get into trouble. There are lots
of interesting things to do that do not  require such strenuous work.

Here is a link to the monthly SPX. It is overbought longer term, but the important MACD
momentum indicator remains positive.  SPX

Long Treasury Bond Yield

The 35 year long bull market in quality bonds has been one of the greatest gifts to investors in all
history. For savvy market players, it has been like shooting fish in a barrel. Moreover, it may not
be dead yet. This is because the long term down trends in real economic growth, inflation, and the
full spectrum of investment grade interest rates have not reached decisive conclusions.The US will
likely need to experience another economic recession at some point in the years ahead before we
could be sure that deflation and zero short rates may have been banished. This is why many bond
players have not thrown in the towel despite historic lows in Treasury yields in 2016.

Since this is one of my final blog entries, it would be polite of me to offer long term guidance on
the potential for the economy in the future. But, to be truthful, I have thought for years that the
US economy had the potential to grow by 2.7% per annum based on work force growth and
productivity assumptions and, as it turns out, this view has been too optimistic. Businesses have
just been too cautious to make the long term capital commitments to assure a more productive labor
force in the wake of the huge expansion of productive capacity in the 1990s and more cautious
growth in final demand so far in this century. Even today, capacity utilization in the US is a sub-
par 77%. It could turn out that much of the excess capacity is by now uneconomic and that even
continued modest real growth will eventually trigger an unavoidable need for productivity
enhancing investment. Having been too optimistic about the economy, I leave it for actual events
to tell the story.

I have a link to the long Treasury yield for the past 5 years. In the chart you will spot a horizontal
line at 33 (3.3%). If the long bond yield  rises above that level over the next year and remains
"sticky" above 3%, that would constitute a break of the very long term down trend in yield for the
bond and would be a prima facie indication that the bull was finally winding up, but hardly a
conclusive one.   TYX Weekly

Gold Price

In the modern era, gold ownership has increased despite its extraordinary volatility. There are very
long term but hardly imposing correlations between the price of gold, accumulated  inflation, the
trend of financial liquidity and the all-in costs of producing an ounce of gold. The latter has risen
sharply over the years as it has become more difficult to find rich seams that are easy to extract.
As an asset class in the modern era, gold most often comes into favor as an inflation hedge play,
and its price can languish during extended periods of low inflation.

Gold has been advancing in volatile fashion since early 2016 on expectations of faster economic
growth  an accompanying cyclical acceleration of inflation. The global economy has been doing  better, but the underlying progress of inflation has been subdued as large excess inventories have
 had to be whittled down to size. Factory operating rates have been stable but suppressed
so that a range of materials prices have  not been swept upward in a fashion typical of a faster pace
of economic growth.

The US dollar has been weak this year as skepticism developed that low inflation would restrain
the Fed from raising short rates. Gold has reacted positively to the weaker dollar, perhaps on the
premise that dollar weakness is a harbinger of future inflation.  Gold Price (Weekly).

If the economy continues to progress and there is a quickening of business inventory accumulation,
inflation should mover higher on a cyclical basis and gold holders may profit more over time so
long as investors dot not quickly decide that the Fed will notstand by and tolerate more than a very
mild lifting of the inflation rate.

Longer term, we may need confirmation  that the global economy is transitioning away from being
deflation prone back to being inflation prone before gold becomes a sturdier holding. in the mean-
time do not loose sight of the fact that equities players may continue to prefer to rotate into gold
when the stock market gets shaky.

Monetary Policy-- FINAL POSTINGS AHEAD

Short Rates
The Fed again declined to raise the Fed Funds Rate (FFR%) today. Maybe by Dec. '17 they will put
25 basis points on. There is only modest inflation thrust now and hurricane damage will be a
temporary drag on the real economy. The Fed has also been watching the economy work off very
large excess inventories dating back a couple of years. This cycle will have to run its course before
commercial loan demand finally begins to re-accelerate. Businesses are being a bit more circumspect
with their inventory policies so far this year.

Quantitative Tightening (QT)
The process of shrinking the Fed's balance sheet and the excess reserves in the banking system
 is scheduled to start in Oct. with $30 bil. monthly roll-offs and sales. The shrinking
process could accelerate to $50 billion month as early as some point next year. To get back to
"normal" the Fed will need to have about $2.5 tril. in securities on its balance sheet by late 2020.
If the Fed shrinks its balance sheet by $50 bil. a month, there will still be sizable excess banking
reserves in the system. After 2020, the Fed will have to get more careful with this QT program
so as not to leave the banking system short handed. This assumes that QT works in practice as
well as it does in theory. Risky business? Mais oui!

The Fed has presumably thoroughly studied the liquidity requirements of both the Treasury
and agency markets and has set parameters for when it may have to intervene short term in
the markets as well as whether there may be a sizable increase in daylight overdrafts. Theory
says things may operate smoothly, but in practice there may be spooky short term liquidity
squeezes. Will the markets begin to price in special squeeze risk premiums and could there
be disruptions to the derivatives markets? It may be wise to expect both in the early going. 

SPX Weekly -- Longer View

Fundamentals
In the initial economic recovery surge, US business rose to exceed 10% yr /yr. during 2011. Then
a slowdown hit which ran into late 2015. Volume growth slowed significantly and pricing power
went from 4-5% annually into negative territory. The stock market weathered this seriously
deficient performance because of the huge QE programs from the Fed and a dramatic increase in
earnings capitalization (p/e ratio). Over the course of 2015, the private sector took over from the
Fed and funded the economy. Business began to pick up sharply in early 2016 and the stock market
began a new cyclical leg up. Business sales recovered from negative momentum territory to
finish 2016 at around + 7.5% yr / yr. Very large excess inventories which dogged the economy
in recent years have been pared down sharply and earnings have recovered substantially. Sales
growth momentum, especially in retail, has slowed throughout 2017, but is at a respectable 5%
 5 % Ann. rate given low inflation.

My weekly cyclical economic indicators have been suppressed by recent hurricane damage,
but the trends through 2017 continue to suggest that further growth momentum
erosion is on tap for later this year and into 2018. At present, recently renewed broad strength in
the SPX shows that investors apparently have little concern.  SPX Weekly


The Fed still desires to "normalize" monetary policy via raising short rates further and also via
reducing the size of its balance sheet, perhaps on a systematic basis. We may be about to step
off into new territory from an historic basis. If and when the Fed proceeds on both fronts, it will
usher in era of quantitative liquidity tightening (QT). The banking system holds enormous
excess reserves from the QE programs, and it will be the surplus reserves that are cut. Even so,
if the Fed sells securities and allows others to run off, it will impact liquidity in the markets
negatively. As of today, there appears to be little concern in the markets.

Technical
The SPX continues to trend higher, but is approaching another intermediate term overbought on
RSI. Recent overboughts have only slowed down positive price momentum, but be assured some
traders are near to squeezing the sides of their chairs.

Market Breadth

The cumulative NYSE advance / decline line has made a new all-time high this week. NYAD Daily
The top panel shows the broad measure VLE (featured yesterday). As seen, it has failed yet to
recover its high, revealing the sharp slowdown in price momentum. The momentum of the A / D
line has also slowed but remains nicely positive (bottom panel). The chart also shows the RSI of
the A / D line. It is approaching an overbought level, which signals the market may be getting a bit
toppy for the short term.

Broad Stock Market

So far the broad stock market (1700+ stock composite) has traversed the seasonally volatile Aug. -
Nov.1 period with minor damage. There has been a hiccup in volatility, and the average stock has
under performed the large cap. SPX, but the broader market has tested its 200 day m/a in an alright
fashion  even if it is not entirely out of the woods on this important measure.  VLE Daily

There has been damage worth noting. Just over 50% of stocks are in confirmed uptrends. That
does not compare favorably with the SPX. Moreover, the broad VLE composite continues in a
lengthy 10 month downtrend in  comparison to the large cap. measure with this development
signalling investor caution concerning the economic outlook running out into 2018. Since my
weekly economic and profits indicators have been stagnant since earlier this year, the caution may
not prove unwarranted. It is also worth noting that unlike the SPX, the uptrend in the VLE has
been broken. At best, that signals the broad market may chart a fresh course which need not
be as positive as the run from early 2016.


Worries, such as some measure of armed conflict with NK, the short term negative impact of
monster storms Harvey and Irma, and political dumpster fires in the nation's capital seem to
have been set aside for now in favor of the longer standing meme of low growth, low inflation
and a high market p/e ratio that has sustained the bull market for the past several years.

Stock Market

I am for caution here. With a more a destructive bomb, NK has crossed a line. It is now time to try
to shoot down any further missiles it fires because it is now too dangerous to rely on guesswork
about their nuclear prowess. Who really knows whether they recognize that. Harvey storm damage
could easily reach $200 bil. and there is a an even more powerful storm (Irma) bearing down on
Florida and the coast. Potentially huge storm damage from Harvey and possibly Irma could damage
US capital stock and major relief programs could undermine the vaunted tax reform effort and
increase the complexity Congress may face in setting out a budget and raising the debt limit.
 For the market, September is going to be like watching out of shape middle aged people run
 the 100 meter high hurdles. It can be done nicely, but there could easily be falls, scrapes and
bruises.

These potentially huge exogenous factors are arriving just as investors are intensifying their studies
of whether to protect portions of 2017 gains already on the books and how best to structure portfolios
for the year ahead.

The market has been struggling to maintain solid, positive momentum since the end of Feb. If it
was way overbought for the short term now, it would be easy to tell traders to book it. But the
SPX is in neutral territory for the short run, so there are likely to be opportunists even despite
some potentially nasty short term fundamental overhang.  SPX Daily

The Long Treasury Bond %

The long Treasury bond has been a little tougher to trade since the end of 2015. Last year the yield
was slow to rise despite indications the economy and inflation were both set to accelerate. This
year the yield was slow to fall despite the sharp reversal of inflation. It remains in a down trend
mode currently even though inflation indicators are starting to inch up.  $TXY Weekly

The bottom panel of the chart shows the relative strength of the SPX against the USB (long Treas.
price). As seen, emerging, negative sentiment on stocks pushes asset allocators to rotate out of
stocks and into bonds. Interestingly, the bond has enjoyed the lower inflation so much this year ,
that it has held up relatively well against the SPX through much of the year.

I would rate the bond market as still a bit oversold at present levels. The long Treasury % is over
20% higher than it was a year ago (top panel of chart), and is falling below its falling 40 wk. m/a.
You will note from the chart that changes in the direction of the 40 wk. tend to both confirm trend
and suggest that it has further to go.

Should markets players get nervous about the stock market over the next couple of months,
top quality bond yields may decline more (and prices rise) as stock traders seek a safer haven.

SPX -- Weekly

Everyone knows this a well advanced bull market where you have to choose the most generous
valuation methods to get even somewhat comfortable. Price momentum has remained positive
but has deteriorated noticeably since the SPX hit a major intermediate term overbought at the
outset of 3/17. Weekly cyclical economic indicators suggest that both the economy and business
profits momentum have probably peaked. On the plus side, continuing low inflation and negative
real short rates have helped the SPX p/e ratio stay elevated. As well, there is a fairly strong
investor consensus that the economy is a good year away from a genuine downturn. Fewer
players are confident that the Congress can pass tax legislation in the months ahead that might
assure a longer run for the business expansion, but hope has not been abandoned totally. Trump
has fucked up royally over the past three weeks via the North Korean flap, the handling of
the Charlottesville demonstrations, and more recently, his vicious verbal attacks on top GOP
operatives in the Senate and the press. Likely tough fights ahead on the debt ceiling, the budget
and tax reform have grown more worrisome by stupid behavior from the White House. So, the
market has lost some ground over August, although there has as yet been no downside breakaway.
SPX Weekly

There may be trouble ahead in September if the SPX fails to get above its 13 week m/a and move
back up toward 2500 right quick as that would signal more extended damage to already shaky price
momentum. 

Gold Price

The gold price was trashed over the last four months of 2016. It had reached a dramatic speculative
top by Jun. - Jul. and this was accompanied by the decline of inflation thrust indicators in the
latter part of the year.  Gold Weekly

As the current year has progressed, the US dollar has weakened and the inflation pressure gauges
have been in a bottoming mode. The gold price has advanced fitfully in 2017, and has found
resistance at the $1300 oz. level. The tenuous advance probably needs for the inflation pressure
gauges to strengthen further as the year progresses. The weaker USD has not resulted in a sharp
advance in the important oil price or other key commodity composites and the lack of inflationary
follow-through has generated some gravitational pressure on the gold price.

Gold is not overbought and its 40 wk. m/a has just started to turn positive. However, intermediate
term resistance is formidable at $1300 and gold may suffer if there is another fail in the next few
weeks. Short term, gold can hold its uptrend if it can remain above $1250 on a retrenchment.

Stock Market -- Aug. 1 -- Nov.1 (3)

Trump's behavior on North Korea and then over Charlottesville have significantly undermined
investor confidence both in his ability to provide sound presidential leadership and to provide
in-depth direction for key agenda items such as the budget, debt ceiling and broad tax reform.
People are correct to harbor serious doubts about the guy and with such critical agenda items just
weeks away, The Donald has little time to turn matters around. The market has sold off in recent
weeks, but players have hedged bets only mildly so far, and many may have already abandoned
progress on Trump fiscal programs while basically remaining bullish on the 6-12 month outlook.
VLE Weekly

The broad Value Line Arithmetic has broken the uptrend line in place since early 2016 and has
violated its 40 wk m/a for the first time in two years. Momentum and breadth are eroding, volatility
is on the rise, and, as shown in the bottom panel of the chart, there are early indications the
market is setting up to change direction for the intermediate term. There is price support for the
VLE just below the current level.

The market is bending lower, but it has not broken yet.

SPX Daily -- Quickie

Long time and knowledgeable New Yorkers like myself are hardly phased anymore by Trump's
thoroughgoing egomania. But, some of us were surprised by how far he went off the rails this
Tuesday in his improvised and morally distorted press conference in the lobby of the Trump
Tower. He lost his business councils of prominent CEOs and has senior GOP elected officials
questioning his fitness to be a successful president. What was surprising was that it all happened
live and in full public view. Decent, conscientious folks (including a number of investors) have
been exhausted by the ugly melee in Charlottesville on Sat. past and its troubling aftermath,
stoked by Trump himself. The stock market took a drubbing again today as some traders started
to question how thin the ice is that they have been happily skating upon.  SPX Daily

The market has slipped into mild corrective mode with support at SPX 2400 and I am certainly
not clear on whether market players will quickly move to correct the damage or whether
more traders and investors will want to trim positions further and sit back to see if  the current
troubling political shit storm settles down. God knows, they have already given this guy the
benefit of the doubt.

Trump's competence and fitness to be president is finally coming to the fore as a factor at a time
when serious economic and financial issues are going to hit the calendar soon after Labor  Day.
Folks want to see the Trump Team's fiscal programs and hopefully intelligent outreach to the
Congress and do not want to see him consumed by bitching over Confederate statues and
symbols of a war fought over 150 years ago. Lasting damage has been done to his reputation
but his guys have to fight like hell now to get him back on the rails.

Stock Market -- Aug. 1 -- Nov. 1 (2)

Patriotism, as they say, is the last refuge of scoundrels. And, in Messrs. Trump and Kim, we have
quite a pair. I am having trouble believing that this contretemps is more than a giant Trump
smokescreen, with North Korea a willing accomplice.Trump is falling in the polls. He fumbled
his end of the health care bill and special counsel Mueller and his group are taking a hard look at
whether serious financial crimes were committed involving Trump et al and Russians. With the
fire and fury threat, The Donald has drawn attention away from increasing political weakness.
But, since there is no guarantee this is not an exercise in reality TV fakery, but is instead a crisis,
the stock market took a jolt this week.  VLE Weekly . The Value Line Arithmetic dropped sharply
this week and is at shorter term support just under 5500. Moreover, the index is set to test its 40
week m/a and has broken the uptrend in place since the latest advance began in Feb. '16. These
are 'heads up' factors for the broad market, and we'll have to see next week whether the latest
contretemps between the US and the PRNK will fizzle and provide relief, or persist and worsen
and lead real to genuine trouble for us and the market.

Market breadth last week took its sharpest drop since prior to the 2016 election. The NYSE
A/D line could be ready to test its 13 wk. m/a and the rising trend lines from Feb.'16 and the post
election rally have been broken. Note, however, that the A/D line is still well above its 40 wk.
m/a., so a longer term test may still be a ways away.  NYAD Weekly

The bottom panel of the chart shows the VIX or volatility measure. It has been in a jagged
down trend since the autumn of 2015, but last week's bounce broke that. This represents
another 'heads up' for the market.

Well then, have we entered a more volatile and corrective interval that has characterized so
many past Aug. / Oct. periods? Too early to tell I say, especially since you have a bullshitter
like Trump as the instigator.

Stock Market -- Aug. 1 -- Nov. 1

History shows that the period of August through the end of October can be volatile with no shortage
of price corrections and even a couple of crashes (1929, 1987) thrown in. It is a period when market
players critically assess what their year may look like and are also forced to look at the next year
more seriously. It has also been a time when the Fed tightens the reins on liquidity ahead of the
typical holidays easing interval toward year's end.  Seasoned investors know the history and are on
heightened alert. As well, it is a time to plan portfolio and rotational change for the following year.
So, you may find plenty of cautionary market commentary from fundamental and technical sources
show up in you in-box. For all I know, the market may skate smoothly right on through this period,
but I plan to showcase it weekly to avoid boredom from taking further hold.

Now there are contentious political issues ahead, including raising the debt ceiling, trying to settle
on a budget and the possible introduction of tax reform legislation. Tax reform could be a plus if
tax cuts come into play, or a bust if talks do not even start in the Congress or fail when they do.
Moreover, as autumn wears on there will be Fed behavior to study and speculation about who, if
anyone, might replace Ms.Yellen as chair. Finally, the Mueller investigation of Russia / Team
Trump is moving into probable cause territory with two grand juries now open for business.

I will focus on two charts. The first is the Value Line Arithmetic price chart, an unweighted index
of over 1700 closely watched issues. Secondly, comes the NYSE cumulative advance / decline
line.

The Value Line ($VLE) is trending up but has lost substantial momentum since early in the year.
The weaker positive action reflects the potential for slower economic growth over the rest of
the year which is also reflected in weekly forward looking economic indicator data. This index
is holding its positive trend line from early 2016, but just barely.  VLE Weekly

The NYAD is in a second wave up from Feb. '16. It has lost momentum this year, but is stronger
than the VLE. This suggests investor preference for large cap stocks. The VIX is shown in the
bottom panel of this chart. It is in the low end of the historic range, and we'll see how it fares
over the Aug. / Oct. period.  NYAD Weekly

SPX -- Monthly

The monthly SPX is overbought and hyper-extended when compared to its post WW2 price channel.
There is no price bubble as happened at the end of the past century, and the overextended nature of
the current market does not match the 'bubble echo' which occurred over 2006-7. SPX net per share
is expected to be right around the trend line plot since WW2. Viewed historically, the SPX p/e ratio
at about 18.7x is a hefty 2.5 multiples above the very long term average and directly reflects the
nominal level of short term interest rates and current historically low inflation. The Phillips
curve -- the inflation rate varies inversely to the unemployment rate -- has failed in recent years
as the economy has progressed slowly enough not to trigger off a bout of cyclical accelerating
inflation which has some punch to it. These developments have triggered off a round of  'new era'
thinking in which the economy is seen as able to progress without experiencing the sort of credit
crunch that could trigger off deep earnings and p/e multiple cuts (reversions to norm). According
to a growing group of strategists, it may not be the best of all possible market worlds, but is a
damn fine one. SPX Monthly

There are critics who maintain correctly that proclamations of a new era for stocks will ultimately
turn out to be bullshit and that this will, too. They will be proved right, but when a nastier time
will arrive and how well the market might do in the interim are $64 K questions. There are
features in play now -- the failure of the Phillips Curve and the growth of excess private sector
liquidity in the wake of an already lengthy economic expansion -- that are truly novel. The balance
that exists in both features now are underwriting the market's advance and given their novel
nature, signposts of imminent disruption will not be easy to proclaim directly. This is somewhat
of a 'thinking man's market' and curiously enough, those type of markets are usually weak and
are not making new highs. The best of luck to you!

US Dollar

In a July 4 post, I opined that the dollar was becoming increasingly oversold as negative sentiment
mounted. From a technical perspective, the USD has now reached critical support around 93 based
on weekly closing prices. The bears appear quite confident the dollar is about to break support and
head well lower.  USD Weekly

The Fed has relaxed some about tightening policy further in view of lower inflation currently,
 but it still seems determined to move away from accomodation down the road as the
economy is still expanding. Moreover, the Fed wishes to start to shrink its balance sheet soon.
With private sector liquidity  still plentiful, this may not be a disruptive event at all in
the near term, but eventual quantitative tightening (QT) will become more of a factor as the
economy matures further. The dollar bears may also regard the sharp recent recovery of the oil
price as also in their favor even though it may eventually add inflation pressure in the US. and
strengthen Fed resolve. The capital and financial markets have been relatively immune to the
continuing Trump shit storm so far, but perhaps the dollar bears are more anxious. The US, as a
matter of fact, is  just a few short steps away from a constitutional crisis over Trump's desire to
collapse the inquiries into Russian intervention in the US election and heavy hints of financial
wrongdoing that could involve Trump business entities.

The USD is now very oversold for the intermediate term and it seems a little odd that dollar
shorts coming on now would be richly rewarded after such a sharp decline has already taken
place.

SPX -- Weekly

The SPX is overbought for the intermediate term, is getting overextended for the intermediate, and
fully valued on the more liberal valuation measures. The weekly cyclical indicator composites did
better last week but have been running flat for most of 2017. Outside of all that, the market is still
trending higher as players use the slow growth, low inflation, and expanding private sector liquidity
environment to coax the SPX higher. Market psychology remains formidably positive even though
there is a strong consensus that the market could easily correct by 10% at some point through mid
2018. With momentum measures on high, extended planes, you need to monitor the situation
diligently.   SPX Weekly

Financial System Liquidity

The end of the Fed's QE programs did hamper the economy and the stock market for a while, but
the view here was always that if private sector funding responded positively, the economy and the
market would be OK. Strangely, the US is now moving on quite a different plane. There is clearly
sufficient liquidity to fund economic expansion and rising capital markets. The surprise has been
the steady rise in private sector liquidity preference. Historically, as an economic expansion
matures, the basic money supply adjusted for inflation tends to flatten out and occasionally go
negative as consumers and businesses run higher spending budgets. But here we are with real M-1
up nearly 7% y/y on miniscule short rates. In a like manner, my short term credit supply / demand
pressure gauge would now be running strongly positive as banks hustled to meet rising loan
demand from business. Not this time out. The gauge now sits at a -5.4, which is more indicative
of recession or the initial stage of an economic recovery. With folks more interested in holding on
to their money, one outcome is that there is now a built-in tendency for the economy to grow rather
slowly and for inflation to remain subdued. There are unusual circumstances, too. Business
inventories are continuing to run on the high side, and the Trump /GOP threat to repeal ACA and
replace it with a stingier health plan has up to 50 million consumers worried about losing coverage
or paying higher premiums. This dumb, drawn out saga is leading people to defer spending and
build liquid kitties instead.

This strong contra-move in favor of liquidity preference by the private sector provides funds to
support the markets at present, but if it continues, it will eventually imperil the economy or keep it
running at stall speed.

Investor confidence is high, but it would be nice to see stronger business and consumer confidence.

SPX -- Daily

Primary market trends remain intact on the daily SPX chart. breadth is moving along positively.
Volume is light, but that could be mostly seasonal. Momentum measures are positive, but they
have been deteriorating progressively. The weekly cyclical fundamental indicators have been
flat since early 2017, suggesting the economy will lose positive momentum out ahead. Retail
sales have already been softening and some key monthly sales and earnings measures have been
slowing. However, Ms. Yellen is now spinning the same story in a dovish fashion -- moderating
inflation -- and the Street likes this as it suggests credit tightening will proceed more slowly. My
e-mail continues to gradually accumulate caution signals from seasoned and successful strategy
people. Pressure from centers of prominence outside the Beltway are telling the Trump team
and the GOP to get moving  on stimulus programs, but Senate leader McConnell, a naysaying
'Miss Grundy' type, is trundling along slowly as he follows his own muse. SPX Daily

The chart shows the market has been bending but not breaking for months now and has been
playing hob with the 25day m/a, sending out mechanical sell signals on breaks that have whip-
sawed bearish traders.
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am basically done with the SPX and macro-style trades above 2450 and would have to see
the MACD (bottom channel of the chart) skitter down to -40 or so before I would consider a
long side trade. Even then, I would only use a small amount of capital. The market owes none
of us a blessed thing, and, for my part I am just thankful the world did not head into full fledged
economic depression in 2008.

Gold Price

On a global basis, indicators began to signal faster economic growth and an acceleration of
inflation in early 2016. In anticipation, there was a major speculative run-up in the gold price
from a depressed $1050 .oz up to $1375 into Aug. last year. Economic indicator data have lost
the strong upward surge seen over much of 2016, sensitive materials prices have leveled off here
in 2017, and inflation thrust measures have lost substantial upward momentum despite modest
improvement in capacity utilization. Moreover, new business order rates have been on the rise
while final sales have continued relatively sluggish, thus signaling the possibility of another
involuntary build-up of inventories. Without the anticipated follow through on balanced, faster
growth, the inflation acceleration story has faltered, and even with the recent continued weak-
ness in the USD, this year's rally in gold has faltered.  Gold Weekly 

You can probably add the failure of the Trump / GOP to advance its tax reduction / reform and
infrastructure investment programs to the gold price negative column as well. In short, gold
players have found fault with the late cycle 'reflation' story and gold has dropped near an inter-
mediate support zone of $1200 oz. As well, without evidence of higher and sustainable inflation,
gold traders have not been able to surmount the  $1300 level except for brief periods in recent
years.

Since I am a strongly growth oriented guy who thinks gold can help out portfolio returns
during periods of faster cyclical inflation, this has been a frustrating period amidst some false
starts. Since I also view the USD as technically oversold I am content to let the gold price
go ahead and challenge the $1200 level for now.

US -- 50 year Health Care Racket And Still Counting

I live in the semi-boondocks and have been bitten around 30 times by deer ticks over the years.
My luck failed to hold in recent weeks, and I contracted Lyme Disease. I am recovering OK
because we caught it very early. I received the bill for the diagnosis yesterday from the local
medical group. The retail charge (before Medicare) for a 20 second look at the bulls eye rash
emblazoned on my chest to confirm the call was $973.00. There you go!

US Dollar

The argument here for the past 6-7 years is that the dollar should rise over the long term because
trade fundamentals will run in the US's favor and dollar outflows through the trade window will
slacken. I have envisioned a slow process of USD recovery with the Buck  settling in at 100
by 2020. On fundamental grounds, I see it as reasonable now in the 92 - 93 area. USD Weekly

The dollar has been retreating from a very heavy overbought position reached at year's end 2016
and continues in a clear downtrend, heading for intermediate term support at a little below the
94 level. The fun part here is that with the negative sentiment intact, it is reaching one of the
deeper oversold positions it has attained in recent years. Trading the $ is has not been my cup of
tea, but it should be enjoyable to see if there is a rally in the USD before too long.

SPX-- Weekly

 The post- election rally in the SPX to new highs has had a close call or two but has retained its
footing. Breadth and volume have remained OK, but price momentum both for the SPX and
issues seen individually is waning. As July wears on the SPX  will have to maintain weekly
closes above 2400 to keep the rally intact. A break of trend from the 2/16 base would require
stronger corrective action, so if the SPX falls short of 2400 on the weekly closes, it need not
be fatal. My weekly cyclical economic fundamental indicators are breaking a bit weaker and
this suggests the upthrusts in these data sets which provided major support to the market since
early 2016 may have ended. However, to date, the flattening of forward looking economic data
in evidence over much on this year has not undermined the SPX, so we'll have to see whether a
breaks of trend in theses data composites threatens investor confidence. SPX Weekly

SPX -- Weekly

The SPX is still running OK positive, but the broader market, featuring breadth and unweighted
price indices like the Value Line Arithmetric ($VLE), are lagging and falling behind on trend
momentum. At this stage, there is a growing preference for the larger cap. more liquid names.
My weekly cyclical fundamental economic indicators have been on the flat side since late Jan.
and suggest a loss of positive economic momentum out ahead. Unweighted market measures are
performing more in line with the economic data weeklies as the SPX rolls on. I have argued in
recent weeks that the SPX had a reasonable shot at rising above 2400, but I have run out of short
run insights to support a continued advance and see no compelling reason for the SPX to move
above the recent high of 2450. Weekly SPX

The bottom panel of the chart shows the relative strength of the Value Line to the SPX. As can be
seen, the SPX can easily outpace the VLE for the intermediate term, but a market led by a broad
array of mid - cap. and smaller cap. favorites is healthier and more sustainable.

Of note here is that the Senate is set to take up the nasty health care bill this week. If the Senate
leadership can horse trade its way to passage of the bill, it might boost the spirits of investors
who are still considering the large tax cuts for the wealthy in the bill as a set-up and lead-in
to the tax reform proposal.

Oil Price

Back on 2/5/17, I posted that the oil price was quite vulnerable to a price correction given the
record level of speculative interest in the futures market and the parabolic recovery in the price
since early 2016, when WTIC crude made a multi year low of about $26 bbl. Since the 2/5 post,
the oil price has retreated by nearly 23% and the trend has turned bearish.  $WTIC


There has been a strong market observer consensus for some time that oil would trade through
2017 in a range of $40 - 60. The sky high speculative long side interest has been sorely dis-
appointed, and now crude is edging toward the bottom of the consensus range. Even though
speculative interest in going long crude is now far from the peak, it remains sizable. But, the
price is now approaching an oversold condition on RSI, its first since early 2016. The price
trend shown on the attached chart suggests a test of the $40 mark out ahead and if it does not
dive sharply below that level, oil could be interesting as a long.

SPX -- Daily

The SPX continues in a well pronounced uptrend since 2/16, one that includes a clear breakout to
record highs in the wake of the Trump election victory. The enthusiasm generated by the Trump
victory reflected a fast building of consensus that US business was on the verge of a new bright
era of faster growth. May be that there would be an acceleration of top line real growth, but the
real kicker here was  the outlines of tax reform and dollar repatriation programs that alone could
boost SPX net per share by 25% over the years immediately ahead in concert with a new health
care program that would significantly line the pockets of the wealthy at the expense of most others.

The market has continued to rally this year even though the Trump agenda cloud cover reflects his own doing. Without the Trump stimulus measures, profits  are not likely grow more than 4% a year going forward after this year's recovery. There are other market players who may be content without the Trump stimulus play provided there is no significant acceleration of inflation and assuming the Fed will continue to move very slowly on its plan to raise short rates. This latter view is reflected in the narrowing of the long Treas. yield curve this year by about 50 basis points.

The market has run well out ahead of the Trump stimulus outlines since the faster rate of inflation
that would accompany stimulus laid over an economy that is already well along in its expansion
phase would force the Fed's hand on rates and probably force down the market p/e ratio. In turn,
if the Trump plans die in Congress, and we have to trundle along with low earnings growth, why
chase the current trajectory of the market?  SPX Daily

Broader Stock Market

In the post last week, (scroll down) I included the monthly SPX chart but focused on how the Big
Money has viewed valuation in the market via The Rule of 20. From a comparative perspective, this
is a rather liberal way to value the market, but it helps explain whose been in charge. The monthly,
weekly, and daily SPX charts are all trend positive but are also overbought. This post takes a
broader perspective and not one that is capitalization weighted.

First, I show the equal market weighted Value Line Arithmetic index of 1700 + stocks (almost
half of all publicly trade individual equities).  $VLE Weekly The index made a new closing record
high this week, and remains on trend form the Feb. '16 low. It is not nearly as overbought as the
comparable SPX. I am happiest when the VLE is outperforming the SPX. Such has not been the
case since 12/16, and signals moderately weakening confidence in the broader economic picture
Performance of the VLE is much more in line with my weekly cyclical fundamental indicator
which been flat since around year end 2016.

Next, I have attached the cumulative NYSE advance / decline line. It too is on trend and at new
record highs. The A / D line is getting heavily overbought for the intermediate term, but note
that with breadth in an advancing market, overbought conditions can hang around for weeks
before there is a break.  $NYAD Weekly