About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, June 04, 2017

Broader Stock Market

In the post last week, (scroll down) I included the monthly SPX chart but focused on how the Big
Money has viewed valuation in the market via The Rule of 20. From a comparative perspective, this
is a rather liberal way to value the market, but it helps explain whose been in charge. The monthly,
weekly, and daily SPX charts are all trend positive but are also overbought. This post takes a
broader perspective and not one that is capitalization weighted.

First, I show the equal market weighted Value Line Arithmetic index of 1700 + stocks (almost
half of all publicly trade individual equities).  $VLE Weekly The index made a new closing record
high this week, and remains on trend form the Feb. '16 low. It is not nearly as overbought as the
comparable SPX. I am happiest when the VLE is outperforming the SPX. Such has not been the
case since 12/16, and signals moderately weakening confidence in the broader economic picture
Performance of the VLE is much more in line with my weekly cyclical fundamental indicator
which been flat since around year end 2016.

Next, I have attached the cumulative NYSE advance / decline line. It too is on trend and at new
record highs. The A / D line is getting heavily overbought for the intermediate term, but note
that with breadth in an advancing market, overbought conditions can hang around for weeks
before there is a break.  $NYAD Weekly

1 comment:

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