Powered By Blogger

About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, October 22, 2017

The Long Term -- Overview

This post begins a series of notes on the long term outlook for the capital markets and the
economy. It is based on a half century of analytic work, hopefully informed conjecture, and
of course, sprinkles of pure imagination.

I think that by 2025 - 2027, the stock market and the global economy will fall into serious
trouble. I foresee a credit crunch that bring the stock market and an overheated economy into
steep downturns. I am looking toward China to have large scale economic and financial blow-
outs that take the US and the rest of the world down with it. I also am projecting an end to a
longer term bull market in US stocks to come to a an end which will see highs that are not
surpassed for a good several years. As well I am, projecting the broad financial environment
to become increasingly volatile by 2020 if not a little sooner.

This view presumes that inflationary pressures will gradually increase going forward and bring
about a long, long overdue capital expansion cycle which will add to the world's production
capacity and thus set off central bank tightening of the credit reins.

Through this all, my deepest concern would be for China where the odds favor up and coming
technocrats who will decide to bring President Xi's expanding political power and reach to an
end. This is projected to be an introspective and deeply unsettling period.

Although I do foresee the US bull market in stocks coming to an end until 2025, I suspect an
overvalued market to have a serious decline over 2019 - 2020 as the economy shifts away from
nominal inflation and super low interest rates up toward more "normal" levels.
Note On The Near Term
The SPX is getting a touch pricey...Note as well that the intermediate term stochastic (bottom
panel) rarely goes through a calendar year without heading down toward the 20 level.
SPX Weekly


Fulvio Spada said...

Excellent news!

Hildegard Flatley said...

The association of any state acknowledge the most crucial part in the difference in educational structure. The association is to try this an extraordinary degree primary for getting ready framework as association deals with a great deal of things about the distinction in direction.

Hildegard Flatley said...

I figure, the article you published is so special for me to gain knowledge of present direction framework isn't useful for http://www.pressreleasewriters.org/website-launch-press-release-sample/ predetermination of the world in light of the manner in which that everything is being changed on the planet.

Hildegard Flatley said...

Can anyone compete you in the activities of posting glorious articles like this. I think, no one good service can ever compete you in this wonderful work which you are doing.

RobertKY said...

Long term analysis is possible when we aim to have such plans. Such market overview is winning our heart and such platforms https://www.besttypingservices.net/why-choosing-our-online-typing-services/ are fully developing our ieterst.

hayat said...

Great post. I just love to visit their website for mre informative ideas. So learn more writing plans here.