About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, August 20, 2017

Stock Market -- Aug. 1 -- Nov.1 (3)

Trump's behavior on North Korea and then over Charlottesville have significantly undermined
investor confidence both in his ability to provide sound presidential leadership and to provide
in-depth direction for key agenda items such as the budget, debt ceiling and broad tax reform.
People are correct to harbor serious doubts about the guy and with such critical agenda items just
weeks away, The Donald has little time to turn matters around. The market has sold off in recent
weeks, but players have hedged bets only mildly so far, and many may have already abandoned
progress on Trump fiscal programs while basically remaining bullish on the 6-12 month outlook.
VLE Weekly

The broad Value Line Arithmetic has broken the uptrend line in place since early 2016 and has
violated its 40 wk m/a for the first time in two years. Momentum and breadth are eroding, volatility
is on the rise, and, as shown in the bottom panel of the chart, there are early indications the
market is setting up to change direction for the intermediate term. There is price support for the
VLE just below the current level.

The market is bending lower, but it has not broken yet.

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