The gold price was trashed over the last four months of 2016. It had reached a dramatic speculative
top by Jun. - Jul. and this was accompanied by the decline of inflation thrust indicators in the
latter part of the year. Gold Weekly
As the current year has progressed, the US dollar has weakened and the inflation pressure gauges
have been in a bottoming mode. The gold price has advanced fitfully in 2017, and has found
resistance at the $1300 oz. level. The tenuous advance probably needs for the inflation pressure
gauges to strengthen further as the year progresses. The weaker USD has not resulted in a sharp
advance in the important oil price or other key commodity composites and the lack of inflationary
follow-through has generated some gravitational pressure on the gold price.
Gold is not overbought and its 40 wk. m/a has just started to turn positive. However, intermediate
term resistance is formidable at $1300 and gold may suffer if there is another fail in the next few
weeks. Short term, gold can hold its uptrend if it can remain above $1250 on a retrenchment.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!