I have followed the stock market since the late 1960s. I have always been a monetary liquidity guy
who like to buy when the Fed fosters a tail wind for the economy and the stock market through
providing liquidity to the system and reducing interest rates.
Finding market low points when the Fed has your back with 'easy money' has been a top priority
for me because these periods are always low risk / high return intervals. I have always been much
less concerned with trying to call market tops when the Fed has turned restrictive and liquidity
is being squeezed because I usually opt to scale back positions as the head winds intensify.
The Fed is embarking on a historic mission now. It plans not only to raise interest rates gradually,
but to shrink its balance sheet and excess reserves in the banking system. The bulls will argue
monetary policy is still accomodative, but as time rolls along, the Fed will continue to reduce
its balance sheet substantially, and the head winds will only intensify.
I am content with SPX 2500, and at the tender age of 78, I am not well motivated to do the
careful and intense research to figure out when the market will get into trouble. There are lots
of interesting things to do that do not require such strenuous work.
Here is a link to the monthly SPX. It is overbought longer term, but the important MACD
momentum indicator remains positive. SPX
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!