About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Tuesday, September 05, 2017

Stock Market

I am for caution here. With a more a destructive bomb, NK has crossed a line. It is now time to try
to shoot down any further missiles it fires because it is now too dangerous to rely on guesswork
about their nuclear prowess. Who really knows whether they recognize that. Harvey storm damage
could easily reach $200 bil. and there is a an even more powerful storm (Irma) bearing down on
Florida and the coast. Potentially huge storm damage from Harvey and possibly Irma could damage
US capital stock and major relief programs could undermine the vaunted tax reform effort and
increase the complexity Congress may face in setting out a budget and raising the debt limit.
 For the market, September is going to be like watching out of shape middle aged people run
 the 100 meter high hurdles. It can be done nicely, but there could easily be falls, scrapes and
bruises.

These potentially huge exogenous factors are arriving just as investors are intensifying their studies
of whether to protect portions of 2017 gains already on the books and how best to structure portfolios
for the year ahead.

The market has been struggling to maintain solid, positive momentum since the end of Feb. If it
was way overbought for the short term now, it would be easy to tell traders to book it. But the
SPX is in neutral territory for the short run, so there are likely to be opportunists even despite
some potentially nasty short term fundamental overhang.  SPX Daily



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