The bull market continues, but with a tough first quarter of 2018, the market is barely holding its
uptrend. Moreover, for the first time since late 2014, the longer term momentum indicator (MACD)
has turned down. This indicator can whipsaw in the months ahead, but the downturn is bearish
for now. Note as well that there has been no negative cross in the MACD yet, so that there is no
confirmation of a downtrend ahead. SPX Monthly
My weekly cyclical fundamental indicator has been in an uptrend since early 2016. It has turned
sloppy during Q1, but is not headed down fast enough to cause much concern. The US economy
may be peaking in terms of growth momentum and this suggests we may see some slowing of
top line sales growth ahead as well as some pressure on pretax profit margins. On the plus
side, the business sector will benefit from a lower tax rate and earnings should continue growing.
The Fed has turned more restrictive in policy. It is shrinking its balance sheet and the monetary
base has flattened out as well. Bank asset growth is modest relative to economic momentum so
that, in all, there is insufficient liquidity growth in the system to support rising stock prices. This
leaves the market dependent on share buybacks by companies and foreign inflows from offshore
investors. With short rates rising, there is a challenge ahead for the SPX p/e multiple. On the
plus side a cyclical advance underway in inflation has been strikingly humble. You can also
watch to see if equities might benefit from rotation out of bonds if inflation perks up a little more.
In all, thin porridge for the bulls.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!