About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

US Dollar

The argument here for the past 6-7 years is that the dollar should rise over the long term because
trade fundamentals will run in the US's favor and dollar outflows through the trade window will
slacken. I have envisioned a slow process of USD recovery with the Buck  settling in at 100
by 2020. On fundamental grounds, I see it as reasonable now in the 92 - 93 area. USD Weekly

The dollar has been retreating from a very heavy overbought position reached at year's end 2016
and continues in a clear downtrend, heading for intermediate term support at a little below the
94 level. The fun part here is that with the negative sentiment intact, it is reaching one of the
deeper oversold positions it has attained in recent years. Trading the $ is has not been my cup of
tea, but it should be enjoyable to see if there is a rally in the USD before too long.

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