About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Long Treasury Bond

The long T-bond will be very interesting to watch as 2018 unfolds. With inflation running down
around 2%, the bond has given up almost all of its long run 300 basis point premium to average
of the inflation rate. Bond investors have also remained skeptical that US real economic growth
will accelerate markedly enough to create sufficient pressure on extant economic slack to push
the inflation rate above the 2% average for any appreciable period of time.

The long guy has moved up from its all time low yield of 2.1% to as high as 3.2% since 2016,
before settling down to the 2.8+% level recently. Doubtless, rising short rates over the past 12-15
months have exerted upward pressure on yields, but the rise in the long bond yield % has been
very stubborn. My bond yield directional indicator has pointed to higher yield levels but it too
has cooled off recently as US production growth has remained modest and sensitive materials
prices have flattened out after rising appreciably from early 2016 through early 2017.

So far, the bond players have not grown apprehensive that the Trump / GOP tax cut plan is going
to do much to push up either growth or inflation. Moreover, there is as yet little worry that the
combination of Fed quantitative tightening (selling Treasuries and agencies) and a larger budget
deficit resulting from the tax cut plan will create sufficient supply to put extra premium in the
bond yield. Plainly the bond market is playing like they are from Missouri: Show Us!

Long Treasury Yield %


Anju Shukla said...

Calendar 2017 saw a flurry of IPOs supported by liquidity, which pushed the benchmark indices to record highs.Share Tips

Robert Francis said...

We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers.

We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description.

The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760,


1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC)
2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD).
3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt.
4. Age: One Year, One Month
5. Leasing Price: 6% of Face Value plus 2% commission fees to brokers.
6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift.
7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760
8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

We are ready to close leasing/Buying with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me.

Robert Francis,
Skype: robfrancis7
Email: robertfrancis767@gmail.com

bank nifty tips provider said...

Want to know how you can make maximum profit in Stock option tips Follow