In a post on Sun. 3/13 (below) I expressed my fear for Japan. I took the view that the potential was
there for a most dire and grim calamity based on a quake / tsunami for which there is no modern
precedent. The situation there has not met my worst fears, but it is headed in that direction as
the potential for a radiation emission catastrophe could hamper relief efforts for over 500K people
facing extraordinary privation and imperil Japan's economic and political balance. I deeply hope I
am wrong, but unfolding events still suggest otherwise.
To add to this toxic mix, we are watching what is at best a middling nuclear plant manager, TEPCO,
facing an extraordinary event aftermath that goes far beyond what prudent contingency management
would suggest, as well as a weak political regime that for now appears out of its depth.
TEPCO seems to have little critical intelligence on status of the reactors, especially the spent fuel
rods which are encased therein. The company is working on power lines to restore the pumps
needed to cool the reactors. Godspeed on that.
I have argued since early Jan. of this year that the US stock market faced a sharp correction to start
some time between mid Feb. and mid Mar. The correction started before the Japan disaster, so I
think it is difficult to determine how strongly Japan is weighing on the minds of market players.
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