Stock Market

Fundamental
The weekly coincident fundamental indicator has been trending up fairly sharply since late Aug.
2010. It made a new cyclical high this past week on the strength of falling initial unemployment
insurance claims and rising industrial commodities prices.  It is now about 10.5% below the all
time high set in mid 2007. (The SPX is about 16% below its comparable period all time high).
Looking out closer to mid year, there may be some seasonal weakness in sensitive materials
prices and a period of plateauing by the jobless claims indicator (timing inexact on both counts).
Weekly correlation of the indicator with the market contines to run around  +.61, and the trend
remains supportive of a rising market.

Technical
So far, the boyz have made the SPX 3/16 closing low of 1257 stick. The simple trend line down
off the 1343 2/18 high has been broken and my 25 day momentum oscillator has reversed to the
upside, wiping out the moderate oversold that appeared on 3/16. the market is closing in on
confirmation of an uptrend ($SPX).

Note the 12 day ADX in the bottom panel. The black line is not yet rising -- no signal of trend
underway -- and +DI (green) has yet to cross up through -DI (red). Getting close, though. Notice
also that when +DI has fallen down to a reading of 10 over the past year, it has been ok at
signaling a low.