About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Saturday, September 28, 2019

SPX Update

My liquidity and economic indicators suggest a very modest rebound in economic performance
in the months ahead. The profit indicators call for SPX net per share to remain flattish at $160.
through year end 2019. Inflation pressure gauges suggest a continuation of quite mild acceleration
in the CPI. The short term interest rate directional is consistent with further downward pressure on
the 3 mo. T-bill rate. The SPX remains very over extended viewed long term and is still in over-
valued territory. The risk / reward profile is improving slightly as the danger of imminent recession
has eased somewhat. Longer term economic potential is still down - trending as it has been since
early 2018. China vs US trade issues may well continue to command attention in the months ahead.
It is still too early for the 2020 national election to sharply influence market behavior but it may
add significantly to market volatility next year. I have current fair value still at SPX 2650.

The SPX is still in a long running cyclical bull market. Looking a little shorter term, it has broken
the original uptrend from the late 2018 and is presently adrift. The market is not overbought, but
momentum has been fading, and failure of the MACD improve in the next few weeks would be
disconcerting. For right now, let's call it a "Ferdinand" bull.  SPX Weekly