About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, November 16, 2020

SPX At 3627

 The variety of directional market indicators I follow point positive for the SPX. But there are

 also signs that the market is high both on technical  and fundamental grounds. The SPX is

getting very overbought for the intermediate term, is quite overvalued, and is getting hyper-

extended when viewed on a very long term basis.  So, if you are trading or investing, be 

aware that you playing in a very effervescent and expensive market. The rapid acceleration

of Covid cases may well do more economic damage well into next year and could lead  to

some extensive volatility in the market. The news on the Covid vaccine front sounds terrific,

but even with high efficacy and broad distribution, the economy will take time to regain

solid footing. Even if SPX net per share were to hit new high ground of $200 by 2022,

  the market is hardly on the bargain table at an assumed p/e of 18.1x. Moreover, a

 broader and stronger economy by late next year may bring significant inflation

pressure and rising bond yields. These latter developments could crimp the market p/e

even if the Fed keeps short rates low to accomodate a move to fuller employment.

 

I am on the sideline now and it would take a substantial correction to get me interested in

a long side trade. I sure as hell did not see the "blue wave"  I was hoping for, and I think

the popular view of political gridlock will turn out to prove disappointing for the economy

and investors. If the Dems do not sweep the senate run-offs in Georgia, times could turn

very frustrating for a guy like me as I believe the economy needs a substantial overhaul

if the US is to do well in the years ahead.


 

Sunday, November 01, 2020

SPX -- Brief Update For The Short Term.

 The shorter lead time economic indicators point to a moderation of the pace of recovery
 both in the US and abroad, save for China. The recovery in business profits across the US
 and Europe is projected to moderate. This data basically does not include the future impact
 of widespread efforts to contain a new and dramatic upturn in Covid-19 cases. This will be
 a patchwork affair, ranging from countrywide lock downs to more targeted and limited
 controls. However you slice it, the outlook ahead is rather muddied. For the US, the 2020
 national election may play a major role in how the economy plays out. For example, a
 Trump loss and retention of a Senate majority may in effect lead to scorching the earth as
 Mr. Trump just allows the Covid cases to run up while Sen. McConnell blows off any 
 chance for needed, sizable stimulus. A "Blue sweep" could ease matters somewhat in
 the near term.

The SPX is nearing a correction, but is still far from being oversold for the intermediate term.
 It could turn out that if there is a big blue wave the SPX could rally off short term support,
 but if this occurs, there could be considerable volatility anyway as the SPX is far from
 being oversold even after the recent sharp decline.
 
 I have been a registered Democrat for sixty years and am hoping the Dems kick ass across
 the board.