About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Gold Price

The gold price has recently entered a sharp downtrend. It is fast approaching an oversold reading
on the important RSI technical measure and may, given its inherent volatility, test intermediate
term support at the $1200 level. A relatively strong US economy, rising short term interest rates,
and more recently, Trump inspired talk of a trade war, have all worked to strengthen the USD.
Sudden dollar strength has weakened trader support for bullion. Gold Weekly

Within a couple of weeks, all markets players may get a stronger sense of whether the Trumpsters
are running a bluff on China or whether They really are ready for a long, long overdue battle
with China over Its mercantilist policies. Knowing Trump, if his crew can establish some headline
trade and investment restrictive programs which do not upset the apple carts but give him some
bragging rights, he may go for that rather than go for the more punishing programs that could
could unsettle the US economy and bring blame to his doorstep. If the tough talk is just a typical
bluff, the dollar may eventually lose some ground and usher in a long side trade in gold.

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Stock Market Update

Looking at fundamentals and valuation, I see little if anything to add to the 5/21 "Looking Ahead"
post (see immediately below). As I read, I note there is a new conventional market wisdom about
Trump : Namely, that his bark is much worse than his bite. May be. But please note that he has
yet to face a major economic or policy crisis. This guy is eminently capable of fucking up big
time, especially when one of his obsessions is seriously challenged. So if you are in the game,
best pay attention to what he is up to. Now, looking ahead, there could be an issue for the market
regarding the Congressional election this autumn. It would be normal for the GOP to lose seats
in the House and the Senate, although there are a number of Democrats up for re-election in
the Senate this year in conservative and borderline states, so the once popular idea of a "blue
wave" that could sweep the Democrats into control of  capitol hill currently seems less assured.
In the meantime however, the market may experience some angst anyway, as a "blue wave"
would prompt strong, critical reviews of the current pro-business policies in place.

From a technical perspective, the market needs to clear short term resistance just below SPX  2800
some time fairly soon to convince traders that a new up leg is solidifying.  SPX Daily