Most Japan economy experts are going on record to say that as bad as the situation looks, Japan
will bounce back from the disaster it confronts. I hope they are right, but in my bones I fear for
this proud country. I think it is foolish for folks to believe that they can readily discern the effects
of a 9.0 scale quake on a modern island economy, a quake so powerful that it has shifted the country
by measurable feet. There is likely to be widespread, if not readily visible or easily discernible
structural damage of all sorts to the country. Similarly, the effects of multiple, sizable aftershocks
to the land and its infrastucture should not be underestimated. The emergency at affected nuclear
power plants has yet to peak out, with durable disruption to the nation's power grid already becoming
manifest and with radiation contamination and risks still not at all fully charted. The tsunami has
destroyed the logistics of northerly eastern Japan. Although the most heavily affected areas may be
lightly populated compared to overall density in Japan, hundreds of thousands of people face great
privation that will not be easily alleviated.
I hope the government there makes sure that it asks the world for more help than it believes it may
need. I hope every effort is made to get the nuclear power companies the assistance they require
and to make sure they in turn provide the government and the public with timely and full disclosure
of the risks inherent to the security of the power system and the safety and health of Japan's
citizens.
Japan, as most financial and investment people know, is an insular society with a deteriorating
demographic when it comes to growth. There will be a scramble to rebuild and get back to
"normal". Perfectly understandable, but may be a step backward compared to a more open
look at what the country might do in the wake of this calamity to better secure its future and to
reverse it fortunes to the plus side.
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