Based on my 1/3/11 technical post, the market has behaved about as I thought it would through
mid March. Better lucky than smart.
I think there is another but subdued upleg to the advance that began at the end of Aug. '10. For me,
that's the good news. The bad news is that I have no idea when it will start or from what level.
The market has spiked off the 3/16 intraday SP500 low of 1349. The odds are just 50% that we
have put in the short term low. I would not mind it at all if the market spent a week or two bouncing
around the 1280 - 1250 level to allow that 25 day m/a to work lower. $SPX
Since I now have a mechanical sell signal on my 40 wk price oscillator, I plan to be cautious as
I have great respect for this indicator, not so much for short term timing, but for helping me to
realize study is needed to noodle out what the right side of the trade will be going forward. So,
I am moving out of wheeler - dealer mode into the contemplative.
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