About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Stock Market

A weak mid-day market did not decisively break below low test
zones. This triggered a fierce rally to close it out. My reading and
my e-mails tell me there are far more folks interested in calling
an interim bottom and rally, so the quick express ride up from the
basement was no surprise.

I have no money in the market now, so I am not looking to sell a
rally. For my part, the market will have to carry higher and hold
higher ground to produce a tradable trend. Specifically, I would like
to see the SP 500 move up above its 25 day m/a and see the 25 go
higher as well . The market has not been able to hold above the 25
day m/a for more than a day at a time since August. Chart

My indicators are just shy of turning fully bullish. I am interested in
watching the trend of Baa bond yields plus my own list of less
secure Baa's to see if confidence is returning to the capital markets,
but since I do this over one month time intervals, I am not going
to get a signal until around November's end. Suffice it to say yields
are moving in the right direction now, particularly at the short end
(2-5 yrs). If stocks continue to rally with lesser quality corporates,
I will miss a bottom of some consequence by waiting. I have other
reservations as well, but let's wait until then.

In the meantime, let's see whether today's rally has some power to it
or whether it will be the 5th fizzle since 10/10.

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