About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, November 21, 2008

Stock Market -- Short Term

The market has edged out of vertical crash mode, but with
the week long mini-crash through yesterday, remains in a
downtrend that is about 50% faster than a more "normal" bear
market. In the early stages of this bear, you could count on a
rally when the SP 500 fell about 5% below its 25 day m/a. Since
the bottom fell out in Sept., rallies, such as today's sharp advance,
tend to start after the "500" falls more than 15% below the 25 day
m/a. The few short term overboughts we've seen recently have
been atacked within a day or two. So, conditions remain treacherous
and dangerous even for folks looking for exposure of only a few

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