SPX -- Daily

Short run business / economic data have continued to move positively, but the SPX has been
trading basically flat for the past month. The simplest explanation of course is that the strong
post election rally brought the market up to near term overbought levels and that it has been
in consolidation mode since.  SPX Daily


Price momentum has gone from strong up down to neutral levels as the market settles in near
its 25 day m/a. The indicators have turned down, but no break has yet occurred. As discussed back
on Jan. 2 (scroll down), the pattern of the market advance since early 2016, if it follows through,
suggests continued chop to be followed by a sell down to test to the 200 day m/a. This pattern could
take a couple of months to complete and is based partly on my assumption that players are
exercising bullish zeal in relatively short doses and have not been ready to throw caution to the
wind. The SPX is trading now about 5.6% above the 200 day m/a. In zippier times, when the guys
have been very enthused, the market has ridden up to in excess of 10% of the "200".


The large shifts in political power in the US in the wake of the election point initially toward a
more business friendly environment. I think the new crew is a good thirty years late in terms
of relevance, but most others see it differently. But more importantly for the year upon us, the
market has already blessed us with a good eight year run, economic slack has been cut during
the expansion, and the Fed is now tightening, albeit gradually. It may be tougher to do well
chasing stocks up now then it was when the Fed had our back as They did most of the time since
2009.