About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Stock Market -- Daily Chart

The SPX broke off a short term uptrend from its Jan. '14 low and is now drifting sideways.
Price momentum has faded some, but the primary trend remains positive. In late June of
last year, the SPX entered a more volatile phase of its extended cyclical advance. As we
move into the new week,  the current trading band is SPX 1895 - 1805. The market's
flatness in Mar. to date has wrung out the short term overbought and watered down the
intermediate term overbought. SPX Daily

Short term RSI and MACD shown on chart are both drifting lower. Note how MACD has
tended to reverse and head lower when readings get up to or within hailing distance of +20.
Comparatively speaking, the SPX has experienced a disciplined advance since late 2012
with the exception of more volatility through a widening of the trading band.

The 10 day m/a has turned down and is approaching a rising 25 day m/a. Short run players
should pay extra attention if the 10 drops below the 25 m/a.

There is still a chance the SPX is making a secondary and perhaps problematic top since
the index has not yet decisively cleared the prior top area of Dec. / Jan. at 1850.

Weakness in the SPX over the past year has been well contained by the 100 day m/a and
this measure has worked well as a base of support going forward.
This week Obama is off to Europe for a G-7 meeting. Naturally, the gang will be 
discussing UKR / Russ and what they may do if Russ crosses borders with its forces.
To get Ms. Merkel especially to focus on this problem, NATO and White House
officials have today talked up the idea that Russian boys may be ready to attack
further beyond Crimea.

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