My younger daughter, an inveterate punster, said at lunch today: "When are we going to get
tired of Putin up with these guys?" One problem in dealing with the US is that you never can
be quite sure when a standing president is a killer diller or not. So, as Ukraine goes to full
military mobilization and Putin's boys expand their reach into the far eastern Ukraine, Putin
is counting Obama as a nice guy pussy cat who will not use US wiles and force to allow
Russian troopers and logistics to get stretched on a westward move with large NATO air and
naval power close at hand and also with NATO able to quietly inject advisors, supplies and
weapons into Ukraine nationalist strongholds in the western end of the country. Putin's bet
has to be that NATO will sit on its hands and allow Russia to try to work its will in Ukraine.
Because Putin can so easily put his guys and the Russian economy into deep shit with this
move, and because the Ukraine, despite its deep faults, well deserves to decide its own
destiny, one hopes cooler heads will prevail. Desperate guys are the most likely to do
desperate things.
I am watching the ruble and the Russian stock market. RTSI Weekly Chart Note that an
oversold is developing on the RTSI as it approaches critical support down around 1260.
There could be a nice rally here if Putin backs way off the current course. A sharp break
below support in a troubled environment could send the RTSI much lower.
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