There was a nickel / dime long side trade this week, but I have wound up today with no positions
in the market. The short term trajectory of the market is positive, but unpersuasive. The failure of
the $SPX this week to take out the 1344 closing high of two weeks prior decisively despite a bounce
is a disappointment. I have long side profits for the past month or so in tow, but now I am neutral,
and that is how I read the weekly chart. $SPX
If the market continues within the evident range bound pattern, I may do some more trades, but
for major trades, we need to see the market exit the current trading range in a decisive fashion. As
matters now appear, I am stuck in neutral and will be looking for direction from the market rather
than try to anticipate the next move.
From my perspective, we remain in a cyclical bull market. Much of the substantial intermediate
term overbought we saw earlier in the year has been wiped out by the sideways move in the $SPX.
So there is not a compelling need to be defensive from a technical point of view.
If you look over the stock market posts since early Jan. of 2011, you'll see that I've had a decent
handle on direction because there have been ok signposts to work with along the way. Not so
now by my work.
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