The past two week period was the 13 - 15 wk. cycle bottom time
frame. The market should have begun to rally over the past few
days. No such thing. I am looking to go long next week anyway as
my NYSE adv. / dec. oscillator is signaling a tradeworthy oversold.
I still keep track of the TRIN indicator. It is not as useful a measure
as once it was. The NYSE TRIN represents volume per declining
share divided by volume per advancing share. When the ratio is
above 1.00, net selling pressure is indicated. When the 21 day TRIN
tops 1.50, it indicates heavy selling pressure. I have linked to a
chart of the NYSE TRIN with 21 and 40 day moving averages. The
TRIN action over the past month suggests a build toward climactic
selling (today), and the 21 and 40 day averages are fabulously
oversold, topping or matching levels seen in the big bear days of
2008. Just nutty stuff. Chart.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!