The rally that started in early Feb. has been shaky for several weeks
as today marked the third break of a short term uptrend line. the
market also was swept below the 10 and 25 day m/a's and has
turned down on MACD and ADX measures.
It was not materially overbought on my short term momentum
measures, but it was on my advance vs. decline measure (6 week
cumulative) reflecting the strong surge in mid and smaller cap.
issues. Likewise, my 6 week selling pressure gauge has been rising
from low levels for a few weeks, indicating the beginnings of some
So, we have a heads up on vulnerability, but my indicators do not
offer strong clues on downside. In total, the indicators suggest there
could be unsettled conditions for up to six weeks. If you had to
make a call, the easiest one would be to say the indices would trace
down to Jan. '10 resistance (See chart).
Top calling in this rally has been like watching Wiley E. Coyote
trying to stop the Road Runner. As I have said for a couple of
months, this rally has been way out of place relative to the steep
advance that preceded it, so I am in humble student of the game
mode when it comes to guessing about whether it can be rescued
or whether a more appropriate and several months long period
of weakness / basing lies ahead. In this regard, one of my top
indicators -- a smoothed 40 week price oscillator -- has whipsawed
me for only the second time in 30 years. When a good one goes
kerflooey on you, it makes you think twice.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!