The leading economic indicators have pointed to a "V" recovery
from deeply down levels for over a year now. And so we are
seeing stronger retail sales, businesss orders and production.
Next will come inventory restocking, stronger payrolls growth and
more positive income levels. There is substantial pent up demand
and more fuel to support it than many realize. Besides the rapid
and dramatic recovery of profits, there are gains for consumers
from a sizable level of home refinancings and liquid assets held over
in the wake of crashes in auto and home sales. Large sums of down-
payment money were never put into play.
But it is important not to confuse the bounce phase of recovery
from the longer term priorities of economic expansion. So it is
that the initial phase of recovery has oftened concealed the
demand priorities of consumers and business as the economy
progresses particularly as regards the deployment of capital for
longer term purposes.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!