I still have this rally as intact despite yesterday's peppering. There
was a sharp sell off back 3/17-18 that took the market off its rocket
trajectory, but it has remained on positive trend since and it held
important short term support yesterday.
Much of the short term overbought was taken out yesterday, but
intermediate term overboughts ranging from 6-13 weeks are in
place, so there can easily be more short term volatility ahead.
My upside target for this rally has been SP 500 850 - 900 through
the end of April. We did close at 870 on Fri. 4/17. So the market
hit nearly the mid-point of the target range. But, since the rally is
still intact, I am happy to see it meander along.
This rally has taken out important trend resistance, and though it
is quite a way from testing measures of longer term durability, I
would not just blythly call it a bear market rally even if time shows
that's what it is. Technically, it commands attention for now.
I would be inclined to write off the rally if the SP 500 takes out
the 800 - 810 level in the days ahead on further selling pressure.
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