The call-the-short-term-top "space" is packed to the rafters with
technicians and pundits. It has been a terrific rally, with many stocks
up more thean 50% from the early Mar. low. The very short term is
less interesting to me than is the time period through June. If the
market stays on this very strong trend, the SP 500, which today
closed at 857, will take out 900 and challenge the Jan. high over 930
over the next 10 trading days. Maybe, maybe not.
Traders who stay long now, if they are experienced and smart, will
have less money out and with tighter stops.
From a percentages point of view, I am more interested in waiting
over the next week or two to see what kind of support develops for
the market and whether that could provide a framework for a further
significant advance post any consolidation or pullback which could
develop over the next couple of weeks. That's also in keeping with
my philosophy of leaving a little money on the table, and, it is also in
line with my interest in looking at other topics besides the daily Dow.
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