By the end of last week (Jan. 17) The SPX had become sharply overbought for the intermediate
term:
> High RSI and Money Flow, elevated MACD. The market was then over a 10% premium
to its 40 wk. m/a.
> Put to Call ratio had fallen to low levels, signaling excess of optimism (bottom panel of
chart).
When the SPX is this strongly overbought, history indicates only a 1 in 4 chance long side
players can make decent money over the next 6 - 12 months from the highs recorded.
With the new corona virus (which carries a pneumonia kicker that can be fatal) as backdrop,
edgy market players are using this new uncertainty to take profits after the recent strong leg up.
It is too early to tell the eventual economic damage from this accelerating disease.
Weekly SPX Chart
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