Fundamentals
Total business sales have been ticking along at nearly 6.5% yr/yr. With reasonably strong
volumes and a price/ cost ratio fairly even, pretax margins have been advancing, and bottom lines
are enjoying the large extra kicker from the tax cuts. As well, inventories are being managed well
compared to other growth spurts during this long expansion period. Stock buybacks are surging,
providing extra fillips to net per share. But businesses are committing to higher levels of capital
spending as well, which will add to productive capacity in 2019 - 20.
Interest rates are in clear up trends across the board and do seem poised to go higher well into
next year as the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy. Inflation pressure is inching ahead and
there is no indication of a sharp acceleration of pricing as yet.
There may well be some slowdown in economic growth momentum as this year progresses, but
it may well be more modest than I originally expected if business inventories continue to grow
at a moderate pace.
The earnings / price yield for SPX based on estimated net per share sits at 5.8% and is well above
the 91 day T-bill yield. This indicates that monetary policy is tightening only gradually and it may
not threaten the market near term.
Valuation
Despite reasonably attractive fundamentals, I have the SPX as no better than fairly valued looking
right into 2019. So, strong upside from current levels rests on the development of some sort of
speculative zeal for stocks as the economic / profits expansion matures and the Fed presses
onward in its bid to "normalize" rates.
Technicals
The SPX is struggling to regain sustainable positive momentum after coming off a generationally
strong overbought condition brought on by the big wave up over the latter part of last year. I
would like to think the SPX is set for a shot at the former highs over the next couple of months,
but I do not think it unreasonable to look for the market to complete a deeper correction that
would bring it to a more solid intermediate term bottom.
SPX Daily
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Stocks will bottom on 6/20/18. That is the 4th seasonal inflection point. The $ will start dropping again, and gold will benefit This is the beginning of the 5th Wave in the Elliot Wave progression. Stocks to the moon. SuperNova time.
Note that the oil producers attempted an "administrative" price increase. This is the opposite of rent controls or price controls. An administrative price increase is ultimately deflationary, unless "validated" by the World's Central Banks, i.e., by the Fed.
So oil will get hit with a double whammy. Long-term money flows, proxy for inflation, will fall in the 4th qtr. of 2018.
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