As the SPX continues to surpass generational overbought records, I have a couple of more
signals to keep in mind. The SPX is now trading at a 13.4% premium to its 40 wk. moving
average. This is not a record, but history shows that when the market exceeds its 40 wk. m/a
by more than 10%, the odds are only about 1in 4 that the market will make good further progress
over the next six months or so. This signal does not imply a bear market will be coming along,
but a correction of substance is certainly not out of the question. Also, with a powerful run-up
in place, the intermediate and longer term price momentum indicators (ROC% below) are
getting extended. They also portend but do not fore-ordain a discontinuation of momentum
uptrends ahead. SPX Weekly
The SPX has also turned parabolic in this powerful rally. It has not and need not complete
its move, but for a long term veteran of the markets, such levitation is absolutely fascinating.
I have done markets bubble measurement over the years, and it is very hard to spot one in the
early stages. The trajectory up for the SPX is a bubble trajectory, but the SPX would have to
reach 3300 this year and, perhaps, 4100 in 2019 to qualify as a fully blown market bubble.
Bubble talk does not scare many players anymore because of the idea of how much money can
be made during the flight higher. Moreover, money managers can lose accounts quickly if
they do not play the bubble. That's called career risk, and it surfaced broadly in 2000. It would
be odd indeed to have a market bubble so soon after the 1996 - 2000 event, but these are
loopy times for the US.
If the market takes a holiday for a couple of weeks just ahead, but then resumes a its strong
trend higher, central bankers should start to feel the heat to tamp down the advance. Greenspan
warned about the last bubble in late 1996, then quieted down and wound up as a drum major
leading it higher.
Finally, do not forget The Donald. He has fucked up more than party with his peculiar
obsessions.
_____________________________________________________________________________
7 comments:
Stock market has reached its peak. It will be unlikely to see more growth this year.
This became truly very helpful site It's anything but a simple errand to deal with the customer's debate and here is esy to browse get more info for good work. In some cases, the requests of the customers are inappropriate to the point that you can't deal with the circumstance. Some of the time, the circumstance turns out to be more perilous.
Just for a moment, I thought the images are real. I appreciate the efforts of http://www.verbatimtranscriptionservices.com/superior-global-transcription-services/ the painter and would recommend that he continues this excellent piece of work.
Domestic animals also need their share of fun and food and why not at Christmas as this article points out, especially check over here in favor of cats! Cat lovers, do read this article.
There are parcels type in hide which we generally don't think about it such data isn't so much regular that is the reason we don't have such learning. Be that as it may, this article has marvelous sort of nice blog which are disclosing to us every single thing about this learning. Such data is beneficial for us in perusing.
Well I won't be able to explore this post because of some urgent on this page assignment and I can't get delay.Just keep uploading more stuff.Thank you.
Youe articlwe is very nice written, and I really like this blog Mcx tips
Post a Comment