Well, I have been wondering whether this would happen. The oil price has been trending up for nearly
a year. The current price is just below the post - crash high and the market is not overbought against its 40 wk. m/a. The strongest seasonal period is just ahead and is set to run through Apr. on demand for the gasoline build for the northern hemisphere peak driving interval. The OPEC / Russia
production cuts have apparently held and the price did not tank over the seasonally weak
Oct. - Jan. period. On the flip side, the 52 wk. ROC% is going parabolic. That is suspicious, but is
not necessarily fatal. What is worrisome, however, is that long side speculative interest in the oil
futures market is at a record high, and currently tops levels seen at major oil price highs. All the
money that is programmed to go into the long side of the market may not all be in, but maybe we
are not far off from that level. Oil Price
The oil market's supply / demand picture should gradually improve as 2017 wears on, but with
bullish sentiment so strong at the moment, perhaps their is room for a painful hiccup in the
market before it strengthens further.
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