About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, December 09, 2016

SPX Weekly -- Up and Up There!

The continuing rally has shown enough conviction and momentum to count as a breakout and
not a mere blip over a two year long trading range.  SPX Weekly

It is significantly overbought in the very short term, but has yet to reach levels on the intermediate
term weekly chart that would warn that a substantial retracement is in order. The market is now
moderately overvalued and strategists are busy playing with the SP 500 net per share to bring
the p/e multiple down to levels where buyers can feel more comfortable joining the chase. Using
GAAP accounting, and recognizing economic performance and oil company profitability are
moving forward, it is not a stretch to come up with an estimate for SP 500 operating net of
$120. per share for 2017. Yet, with  Trumponomics entering the equation, estimates for 2017
are now being ratcheted up to $140. This compares to 2016 net of about $108 per share. This
particular game is about 60 years old give or take.

The SPX is now about 13% above the upper band of its Post WW 2 trading range. In terms of
recent history, the market is behaving like it did in 1996 and 2004 when it ran above the top
of the historic range for several years until it collapsed upon encountering rising recession
prospects. You can maker good money during these periods of unbridled longer term effer-
vescence and lose your shirt when folks get wind that a economic downturn could be at hand.

At my leisure, I have been doing some thinking about the longer run prospects for The Donald's
presidency. In a nutshell, he is 30 years too late. Most all of the horses he rails about are long
gone from the barn and the views of his cabinet picks are as well. The world continues to
grow rapidly around the USA and The Donald's views are especially, painfully reactionary.
My grandson of 18 years is a techno - wizard with pals of many ethnic stripes and e- buddies
around the world. Perhaps talking with him as I do will keep me better informed than Wall

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