US Trade

Monthly US trade data is reported with a six week lag, so it is not timely for the markets except
as confirmation of expectations. Moreover, because the data can be volatile, it must be used with
care. US trade has been very strong during the economic recovery. Imports, reflecting weaker
hydrocarbon and industrial commodites prices since the spring have been flat at around $225 bil.
per month since Mar. / Apr. of this year. Exports have trended higher since then, although short
term momentum has been slowing. Importantly, strong uptrend lines for both imports and exports
in place since the spring of 2009 have been broken in mild fashion with the release of Oct. data.
This confirms the warning of a slowdown in the weekly leading indicators and the PMI data in
evidence since early in the year when powerful momentum peaked, and may be a warning of
further loss in momentum to come.

I plan to post later this week  on my profits indicators, and the newly reported softness in US
exports will be an issue for the first time during the current economic recovery. Since the early
part of 2009, US export sales have risen by a robust 50% with this strength having contributed
meaningfully to corporate profits.