I turned more cautious on the outlook for the market back on 9/20.
Since that time, my internal supply / demand model has run on
the flat side. The model includes a broad unweighted price index
plus the cumulative NYSE adv. / dec. line. Note that with over
3,500 issues now traded on the NYSE, it is basically a small / mid
cap measure.
The SP 500 has done better. It is up about 2.1 % over the same
time frame, and this better performance reflects rotation into
more of the blue chips that may have lagged in the early phase of
the bull run from 3/09. there is also a modest sense of caution as
well since more issues with relatively stable earnings and / or
well protected above average yields have found favor.
Now I have to say that large blue chip indices can easily outrun
my internal supply / demand measure for up to a year or so. Yet,
I do not think it is a favorable long term omen when this happens.
It is also fair to say that a short term disconfirmation of this sort
is not necessarily deadly.
On its own, the SP 500 is in a mild short term uptrend and is
only overbought on measures running out from 14 - 40 weeks.
These are the more important measures, but the situation does
allow positive play in the short run.
NYSE a /d chart.
2 comments:
Hi Peter,
We at Seeking Alpha think your blog is great and would love to have you join our team. Please contact me at contributors@seekingalpha.com.
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Samantha
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MARKET TODAY
Key benchmark may extend gain in early trade on rise in most of Asian markets. Markets are in consolidation mode and a choppy range, as they attempted to digest the gains of the past two days. However some profit taking at higher levels cannot be ruled out after recent surge. The government will today unveil data on some wholesale price indices for the year through 21 November 2009 viz. the food price index, the primary articles index and the fuel price index.
According to data released by the NSE, in the last session, FIIs were sellers of index futures to the tune of Rs 137.61 crore while bought index options worth Rs 245.49 crore. They were net buyers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 87.22 crore and bought stock options worth Rs 56.29 crore.
More details http://www.16anna.com
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