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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Stock Market -- Short Term Technical

My 25 day oscillator broke a downtrend on 9/8, signaling another
run-up was in prospect. This oscillator now has the market at a
moderate overbought level at 1068 on the SP 500. To be precise,
the market stands 4.7% above the 25 day m/a. Over the course of
the advance since 3/09, heavier overboughts have been recorded
at 7 - 10% above the 25 m/a. Historically, however, a reading of
near 5% above the 25 day m/a has often been strong enough to
attract profit takers, so if you're a short term player, you need to
pay attention.

I have linked to the SP 500 chart below. Note that momentum is
overbought and that the 40 day RSI is near 63%. That is a high
reading for this measure.

SP 500 chart is here.

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