Well, the rally has moved up and past the quick sucker format and
is threatening to become more substantial. The SP 500 has risen to
an overbought at 3.1% above its 25 day m/a, so I think we now are
at a level to test bullish intentions as overboughts above 3.0% have
tended to correct within days after the rallies have topped that
modest level (past six months only).
The 25 day oscillator has broken up through a downtrend underway
since early Jan. ' 09. That's a positive as it suggests the downleg
from Jan. may be over. The 10 day m/a is rising. The 25 day m/a is
still falling and the "10" is below the 25. So, it is still only a short term
run. My 25 day indicators are turning up but do not a confirm a
rally of more consequence as yet. Chart here.
The important 40 week oscillator with 13 week smoothing may be
entering a bottoming phase. This indicator indicated a topping phase
which began in the spring of 2007, ran on, and wound up hinting at
the major top that was to come. In a similar vein, the 40 week osc.
could run on in a bottoming phase for some time as well, although
as with all things technical, it need not.
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