Time to get a few things off my mind...
US Economy
As I view the world, all the pieces are in place for an economic
recovery to begin by mid-2009, if not a little sooner. I say this
even holding a fiscal stimulus plan aside. There may be tough months
ahead, and the recovery may be anemic in the early going, but the
right things have been done to make it happen, from money
liquidity through real take home pay through rapidly increasing
housing affordability. Even if you go back to the dark days of 1932,
the economy finally responded positively and strongly to an easy
money policy. That's my operating plan for the economy. From
here on in, I check to see whether things will be different this time
and, if so, in what ways.
Stock Market
I cannot argue with the idea the market might retest the Nov. lows
over the next couple of months. But, looking out 12-15 months, I think
the SP 500, now stewing about at 840 or so, should rise to around
1325 as deflation pressures are shaken off and earnings rebound.
Obama
The guy takes office next week, and even though the new ship of state
has yet to set sail, barnacles are adhering to it. As I see it, his
primary mission is to rebuild our peoples' trust in the US Gov't. by
leading through integrity and common sense. That's why he was
elected. He needs to treat our citizens like concerned adults and restore
rapport before too many of us drift away.
So it is that I object to his use of focus groups. I object to allowing
Hillary to spin that large ball of cotton candy about "smart power" at
her confirmation hearing to be Sec'y of State. I also think he needs to
dump Geithner, pronto, as his tax evasion was inexcusable. The time
is such that we can no longer afford doofusses like Willie or W. You see,
this guy has to be good, has to engage us and challenge us for the
stakes are much higher going forward. And the big challenge, the one
many presidents fail, is he has to trust us too. Hope you have the
wind at your back, Mr. Obama...
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