About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Stock Market

Back on 5/29, it was noted that the stock market rally off the March
lows was discounting both an economic rebound and a moderation
of inflation, and that good news in both categories was needed "very
soon" to hold the rally in place. The news since has suggested the
advent of neither. Fundamentals are not good for short term
timing, but it was obvious back then that the rally had traveled a
fair way without the kind of positive news it needed and that
investor and trader patience was getting thin.

Now we have a substantial short term oversold developing, and
a further drop in the SP 500 from today's 1335 close down to
1320 or lower would yield the kind of decline that shorter term
players might well find interesting for a week or two play on the
long side.

The daily SP 500 chart is linked below. Note the RSI is moving
toward a tradable oversold. The chart.

No comments: