On balance, the two sets of weekly leaders have fallen far enough
to signal a recession environment. As well, those indicators made
bottoms at the end of March and have bounced modestly. I am
also curious that the initial weekly unemployment insurance
claims number has not risen more sharply to date.
The monthly data I use are getting a little stale, but I am struck
by the fact that the new order breadth indices I follow, although
weak, also have not pitched down yet as is consistent with a more
full blooded downturn. As I have noted, inventories have been
well managed at the retail level and wholesale and manufacturer
inventories, while signaling a degree of involuntary build, have
not yet bloated up big time to a level that assures that heavy
additional layoffs are in store.
1 comment:
The inventory build is in houses and bad loans related to same. It isn't in manufacturing,and if it were, it would be overseas where the activity is located. Retail has good JIT inventory practices.
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