On balance, the two sets of weekly leaders have fallen far enough
to signal a recession environment. As well, those indicators made
bottoms at the end of March and have bounced modestly. I am
also curious that the initial weekly unemployment insurance
claims number has not risen more sharply to date.
The monthly data I use are getting a little stale, but I am struck
by the fact that the new order breadth indices I follow, although
weak, also have not pitched down yet as is consistent with a more
full blooded downturn. As I have noted, inventories have been
well managed at the retail level and wholesale and manufacturer
inventories, while signaling a degree of involuntary build, have
not yet bloated up big time to a level that assures that heavy
additional layoffs are in store.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!