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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, November 05, 2007

Treasury Bonds -- Heads Up

I am strictly a contrarian when it comes to trading bonds.
I get very interested in bonds when the long Treasury yield
has drifted far from its 40 wk M/A and / or when trader
advisory sentiment moves to extremes. The Long T is a little
overbought relative to its M/A, but advisory sentiment,
specifically Marketvane, is moving into territory that is
starting to signal excess bullishness. In recent weeks, the
Marketvane compilation of sentiment has kissed 70% bullish
once or twice and most recently stood at 69%. These are the
highest bull readings since mid-2005. Bullish sentiment is
not yet flat out extreme, but the 70% area signals to me
I should starting to think about shorting the bond.

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