Last week the market broke out of a month long period of price
compression to minor new highs. On a twenty plus year long term
chart, the SP500 remains in an uptrend. Ditto for the periods
measured from the cyclical 2002 and mid-2006 interim lows.
At around 1550, the SP is trading slightly above mid-range in a
1700-1300 long term range.
Some of my key intermediate term indicators have failed this time
out, signaling tops that turned out to be but very temporary
respites. Even my momentum oscillator, which keys off the 40 week
m/a and is very reliable, whipsawed once. This all tells me to be
careful what I say about the future. The rally has been a real ass
kicker for those interested in the significant squiggles.
At this point, I do think it is fair to say that although we are
tracking an up market on most all counts, it is a very elevated
market and one that could experience a rapid and substantial
price correction without breaking major uptrend lines. All the
guyz know this. If you're long trades now, you have to be not just
smart but quite diligent as a decline, should one come, could
easily be fast enough to shoot or blow up many of the trailing
stops in place. Armed with cell phones and laptops, the big hitters
are in the action even if at the beach (as many are).
I have linked to the weekly SP500 below. Note the elevation of the
MACD and the fact that the market is dancing near the top of a
20 week price channel. Chart.
No comments:
Post a Comment