Readers of this blog by now know that my approach to technical
analysis is far more artful than mechanical. Being artful
involves working with principle and discipline and, in the case
of this type of analysis, idle tea leaf reading is hopefully
banished.
The approaches I use do not give buy and sell signals. But on
occasion I am struck by configurations that are worth mentioning.
The various market charts I follow all show a downdraft in the
25 day m/a. The market would look less vulnerable if the 25
day m/a had popped up on the recent rally. That simple dvergence
is a bright yellow caution light in my scheme.
Secondly, and again, artfully, the rally would have more of a
positive bias if the the SP500 were to fall from today's 1428
down to 1420 - 1410 before moving ahead at a reasonable pace.
That would distinguish it from the kind of madcap short covering
we saw last week.
Another factor is the ADX (shown on linked chart). The whipsaw
action there since late in December is a bit disturbing. Chart.
No comments:
Post a Comment