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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, March 12, 2006

A Little Trouble In Big China

China is averaging about 200 protests / riots a day.
This is not spontaneous. China's political left is
recovering after years of quiet.

Well paid workers in the eastern part of China are
leaving their country cousins in the dust. Plus,
the new running dogs of capitalism are turning the
country into an environmental cesspool and are
swiping turf the peasants once claimed.

Leader Hu has spoken of developing a "golden harmony"
that brings the 800 million Chinese who are not
sharing in China's economic development into the tent.
A very tall order.

As the NY Times reported today, the Chinese left is
starting to get its voice back, sounding strong
criticism of the country's growing imbalances in
the wake of its economic development.

Hu now has to straddle the fatcats and the peasants'
slow burn which is heating up steadily. This guy is
going to be tested right down to his new Ferragamo's.

Beijing hosts the 2008 summer Olympiad. This is planned
as Beijing's coming out party as a world capital. Losing
face in China is bad business, so 2008 should be a quiet year.
But the left will be pressuring hard for goodies through
2007.

The Chinese excel in traumatic political upheaval, and now
that the old commies are hooking up with the peasants, the
small trouble in China may well become very big trouble in the
years ahead if China fails to rapidly shift its focus from
the fatcats ball to the downtrodden.

Just one more thing that's going to heat up in the years ahead.

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