About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, December 12, 2005

Stock Market -- Technical

S&P 500: 1260

I am impressed enough with the upwave in the market since October
to look for it to move higher, with the S&P 500 now expected to
rise to the 1310 area at some point well into January.

The move in the S&P from 1248 to 1268 over the week of 11/18 - 11/25
was a pleasant surprise but the sideways to down action since then
was not a surprise, as the market had become short term overbought as
indicated in the last technical comment on 11/19.

The impulse up during October and November was clearly strong enough
to warrant an extended consolidation, which could easily last another
week or two before we begin to run out of time in looking for a resumption
of the rally. I am also uncomfortable with the high degree of bullish
sentiment I see in the popular gauges such as Marketvane and Consensus,
so a brief continuation of the sideways/down bias might be in order
to reduce the head on this glass of beer.

If I have a more substantive bother, it would be in the intermarket
area where the charts for oil and the bond yield are no longer
so hospitable to stocks as during most of November. The tenacity of
oil around $60 has been a surprise as this is a seasonally weak period
for oil.

I plan to discuss the stock market more fully as we get a little bit
closer to 2006.

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