Too Many Bond Bulls

10Year Treasury Note: 4.07%

The $USB chart shows that the 10 year note is mildly overbought. The Market Vane survey of bond trader sentiment has reached 74% bullish, the highest reading in over two years. Over the past fifteen years, bullish sentiment readings in the 70 - 80% area on the MV survey have been consistent with interim tops in prices and lows in yields. If this heretofore strong relationship holds, the yield on the ten year note should reverse by between 50 - 100 basis points, which would bring the yield on the note up to the 4.50 - 5.00% area at some point in the next several months.