About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, July 06, 2015

Sweet Jesus : Greece And China

Greece
The ECB, as lender of last resort, opted today to continue its emergency liquidity assistance to
to the beleagured Hellenic Republic to support minimal commerce. With a "no" vote on pro -
austerity bailout programs from the 'Troika' by Greek citizens, The Greek PM deftly outflanked
Teutonic rectitude and forced the EZ players to either blow off Greece and put the country much
further along toward formal default on its $540 billion debt or to sit down with Greek negotiators
to hammer out a new deal which would swap some level of debt forgiveness for additional
austerity. The Greek people are strongly behind the Tsiparis regime, and major non- euro
power centers will not take kindly to seeing the disintegration of Greek society. If Mrs. Merkel
and the eurocrats in Brussels cannot conjure up a marketable story that Greece is truly a unique
case in desperate need of loan forgiveness and beneficence, they are truly worthless as politicians.
Merkel is inviting a veritable shit storm of criticism from both official sources and social media
if  she cuts Greece loose in its time of need. If the European Union wishes to dump Greece
forthwith, load the Greek wagon with debt forgiveness and sufficient liquidity to help them have
a fighting chance to begin to restore their economy. Germany has a chance to create a decent 'final
solution' this time out.

China
Party officials are in panic mode to prop up the Shanghai as it crashes. I have no idea whether
they will succeed, but since so many retail investors have been sucked in by the recent run -
up in the market, they must be concerned that social unrest could be out ahead and that what's
left of the more conservative old guard could drum up support for a counterstrike against
leadership that is seen as moving too quickly to alter the economic order.

My view for months has been the Shanghai should trade around 2800, and it is quite something
to my tired eyes to see the Gov. in there trying to hold the market up at such an overpriced level.
Daily Shanghai  (Note, however, that a short term oversold has developed).

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