About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Oil Price

Oil is about to move into a seasonally strong period which normally lasts through the end of
Sep. - beginning of Oct. Such periods can be exciting but do not normally top the Mar. - Apr.
interval for lift off power. The onset of a seasonally strong period does not look like a happy
moment on the chart. WTIC Weekly

The oil price held up very well through the normally weak late spring - early summer period,
but has broken down sharply since. The Iran nuke deal has been a negative, as has a bit of
firming in the US rig count, fresh debate over the prospective size of the of excess capacity at
the wellhead, and a general decline in commodities. The bear market in oil was re-affirmed
when the price recently failed to break above  its 40 wk. m/a. An oversold condition is
developing with important shorter term support at $45 WTIC.

I had been guessing back in the spring that oil could, after the oncoming bout of seasonal weak-
ness, rise to $70 bl. in the early autumn of this year, but that now looks like quite a stretch and
would likely require not yet apparent extra factors to come into play beyond the seasonal lift.

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