About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, November 05, 2012


Hurricane Sandy was everything they said it was going to be. In our town, we had a nearly
100% power blackout. Prior to the storm, I had arranged to have a fine young man come and
install a 7000 watt generator over Thanksgiving. Bad timing. Instead, I had to quickly
refurbish two, old, large kerosene heaters and zip around and under fallen trees and power
lines to pick up kerosene cannisters. They worked fine at keeping the home reasonably
warm, but the house smells like a refinery. There is another big nor 'easter bearing down on
us with the promise of some snow. I call our utility SC & D Co. (Silence, Cold and Darkness).
Since they are not the most reliable guys around, let me squeeze in a post between storms.

The stock market is still technically in correction mode, although the SPX has found support
a bit above 1400. My weekly cyclical fundamental indicator has been running flat in recent
weeks and the Fed has been conning us about QE 3, as total Fed Bank Credit has also turned
flat and is well below mid - 2011 levels at the end of QE 2.

The presidential election is tomorrow and we hope for a clean result sans an army of rival
litigators and trips to the courts. I am voting for Obama but I would not wager on a victory for
him. If Mitt The Bullshitter wins, there will be new layers of uncertainty to work through
regarding both fiscal and monetary policy and the market may turn volatile as players hustle
to try and handicap the new environment.

The oncoming nor 'easter is going to be nasty, but I am inclined to think the power in our
area will hold up, and plan some catch up posts.

To finish up with a note on the hurricane. I grew up in a lovely community down along the
bay on Long Island. The family contended with some serious hurricanes with torrential
rainfall which caused some mild flooding. With Sandy, the old homestead wound up under
five feet of water, and the flood continued for another mile inland. The roads are still

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