About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Stock Market -- Weekly

Fundamentals
In summary, the shorter term fundamentals suggest a flat / slightly weak market which
could turn positive at the drop of a hat. The weekly cyclical fundamental indicator has
edged down moderately from early Oct. It has not lost much ground in the last couple of
weeks, and, looking across the values, there is a little more stability. The Fed has been
missing in action on QE 3 in recent weeks. With the election out of the way, perhaps the
Fed will find a postive groove in the weeks ahead. With the holidays coming, the Fed
will need to add liquidity to the system for seasonal reasons even if They are having
second thoughts on the QE 3 program. Resumption of QE will be supportive of stocks.
Right now, the Wash. DC official players are speeding toward the fiscal cliff, but matters
can always change quickly and positively if a deal is struck which metes out the economic
damage in a gradual fashion. Expect a sky clouded by trial balloons from Wash. and a
multitude of of suggestions from our many wizardy pundits.

Technical
My weekly SPX chart still has us in a down market that is still significantly above the
kind of deep oversold which would signal that a strong rally may be close at hand. Again,
we also see a market which has fallen below the longer term cyclical trend (This also
happened in early Jun. '12, but we had a quick "down and back"). Weekly SPX

I have also linked to the NYSE advance - decline chart. It is a weekly chart and notice
that a 6 wk m/a of -1000 has yielded nice buy signals. Notice as well that market
advances have proceeded without the 6 wk m/a having to hit -1000 (Apply your own
parameters). Weekly $NYAD with weekly $NYA

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